I did the math, according to FPI game win %, it is actually 1/116 odds that

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Nov 26, 2024
4:54:59pm

the nino 3rd String

I did the math, according to FPI game win %, it is actually 1/116 odds that

this would actually happen. Way better than 1 in a million. Haha.

Go OSU (19%), Kansas (51%), West Virginia (57.9%), Arizona (28.5%), and Iowa State (54.3%).

Crazy that in this scenario, an Iowa state victory is better in that the Houston game doesn't matter. BYU could actually rest players. Does Kalani know about this?? haha.

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the nino

Bio page: the nino
Joined: Jul 27, 2007
Last login: Nov 26, 2024
Total posts: 237 (0 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Flowchart for this weekend’s chaos.

snowbird

4:22am

Texas Tech v Baylor would be peak chaos

NGB

4:57am

This should be stickied for Saturday

Mike Honcho

5:53am

Where’s the most dominant team in the Big12. U Must be on the SEC or B1G chart?

cypresstx

6:29am

I like to think of it this way... as long as ISU or ASU loses, destiny is in

tony

6:34am

add Colorado to that scenario; if the Buffs lose, we control our own destiny

rotorhead

8:59am

Buffs don't affect us getting in, just who we might play.

tony

9:08am

CU losing increases the motivation of KState to upset Iowa State, as KState

snowbird

9:25am

excellent point

Hill4Heisman

4:26pm

Yes, it's way more simple: BYU needs to win and ASU or ISU needs to lose

Brandoblueblood

9:06am

So let me get this straight: regardless of what happens with ISU and ASU,

Refugee

9:25am

By my count, there are 18 different match up possibilities for the CCG

downtownchrisbrown

9:48am

Looks like no scenario where ASU and ISU win and BYU gets in?

insanobueno

9:53am

Correct. We lose all those 2-loss tiebreakers with those two involved.

Yukon

9:54am

Like B12 CCG Pachinco.

PJMort

10:09am

My head hurts

Burton162

10:37am

The best thing about this, is the graphic that is not even there.

SFarkus

11:09am

Seems it would be simpler to start with the ASU game (since they are in the driver's seat), then ISU, then BYU, etc.

unctoothman

11:19am

The games are in chronological order top to bottom

11:21am

Well that works then.

unctoothman

12:00pm

This feels unnecessarily complex

ballen

11:55am

It's in chronological order, so you just follow each game one at a time. Genius.

momowagon

2:10pm

My take away, There’s not even a 1 in a million chance if BYU loses to Houston

the nino

12:10pm

Nope, there's 1 - on the left side

12:26pm

Nope, not seeing it.…

Refugee

12:44pm

There's a line that goes down from the 3rd Iowa State logo. In that case, the

12:57pm

RE: There's a line that goes down from the 3rd Iowa State logo. In that case,

momowagon

2:08pm

Ah from the 2nd row, got it. Thanks! So there is a Lloyd Christmas chance!

the nino

4:34pm

I did the math, according to FPI game win %, it is actually 1/116 odds that

the nino

4:54pm

We’d still want to win. Why tempt the Committee to rank Tulane/Army

Yukon

5:15pm

Got it!! That is nuts!!

Refugee

5:11pm

Here's a counterintuitive "who to cheer for" on Saturday --> Iowa State

Greg4BYU

2:16pm

I ran the parlay on this scenario and it pays out 48 times whatever you bet.

momowagon

2:22pm

How does a team with 4 loses get in before the other 3 teams with at most 3?

cypresstx

2:57pm

Are you looking at conference losses only?

Yukon

4:37pm

Yea, ASU or ISU need to lose and BYU needs to win, but I just printed this chart

Refugee

5:14pm

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