You claimed BYU is a mid P4 team. You claimed we belong in that 25-40 group. Then you claimed that you're "just being realistic."
That's the point I'm contesting. It's not realistic relative to just about every meaningful metric out there.
Even your last prognostication of 9% chance to beat ASU is lower than any model I've seen, so yeah, I'd consider it by definition "controversial" and pessimistic.
We could get smoked by ASU this weekend, or we could very well win comfortably. That's not the point. The point, at least the one I've been speaking to, is that right now you seem to have a negative outlook on BYU football relative to computers, pollsters, Vegas, other fans, etc. If you have any data points that indicate otherwise, please share.
Who knows, maybe your negative outlook will prove to be more accurate when it's all said and done. But that doesn't make it any less pessimistic in the here and now.