SMU now but we would be competitive. I feel confident we could beat BSU. I think Colorado would also beat us down (but I’d love to get a chance as I’ll be at the CCG anyway)

I think our odds at ASU are very slim as they are trending up and we are fading fast. We can win but I’d say maybe 9 percent chance. I think we could compete with some of the 15-25 range teams but could drop several to them or to teams up to the 50’s like Kansas. Or worse like Utah or OSU.

I don’t see how any of this is controversial. We weren’t as good as our ranking but still have a chance to get to the CFP anyway. That’s wild. I’m disappointed we lost to a pretty meh Kansas team as I don’t think we could afford that loss. Colorado is winning out so we have to beat ASU now and I don’t think that’s very likely. And most of the media, oddsmakers and bettors agree. They’re not pessimistic. They're not controversial.

I think we have far overachieved and we’re playing well beyond our actual abilities. I think Kansas and Utah were us coming back to earth and I fear ASU will be more of the same. Houston is a loseable game but I think we get that one to go 10-2. Pretty great record considering. Then if we luck out in our bowl matchup (Washington state, Washington or some other unranked team) i think we win that one and likely finish right around 25 in AP/coaches. There won’t be a final CFP poll so I guess we end up around 23 in that one.

Drop the Houston or bowl game and we finish somehwere below 25, in the range I posted earlier. Drop both and we are firmly in the 30’s. I don’t think that’s too crazy. I think we have a top 30 offense but only a meh offense.

As always, I’d love to be wrong and have us get to the CFP. Then if we play outside our mind or Colorado all get mono we might have a shot 😉