So, nearly a lock...
...but if they were to lose to Ohio State and then Purdue, they would be on the bubble and sweating out the selection committee and praying that their style points in their best wins against...[checks notes]...6-6 Washington and 6-6 Nebraska...are enough to overcome an atrocious loss to 2-10 Purdue and limping across the finish line to sneak into the last CFP spot.
My guess is that 10-2 Indiana is the first team out.