90%+ chance that 12-1 conference-champ BYU is a top-5 champ - so we get the automatic CFP bid. Only scenario there is that Army beats Notre Dame and wins the AAC and catapults up the CFP rankings from #24. Army would still only have one ranked win - assuming Notre Dame stays in the top-25 (an Army win over Tulane knocks Tulane out of the rankings).

75%+ that 12-1 at large BYU is in the top-12. 12-1 means we finish the regular season at 12-0 and likely in the CFP top-5 rankings right before the CCGs. Then, our only loss is in a post-season CCG to a highly-ranked team. Our comparison group for the final CFP spot would likely include 2-loss ACC CCG loser SMU or Miami, 11-1 Washington State, 12-1 Army, a 2-loss SEC team, the 3-loss SEC CCG loser, and perhaps 2-loss Clemson and 2-loss Kansas State.

We would have the head-to-head wins against SMU and Kansas State...so that likely puts us ahead of them.

We would have 2 wins over ranked teams, which gives us an edge over Washington State, Army, and Clemson.

We would have no loss to an unranked team - which gives us the edge over Miami. We would also have the win over SMU and 2-loss Miami would likely have just lost to SMU in the CCG.