Combining probabilities has never made any sense with football because every game happens in a vacuum

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Nov 13, 2024
7:20:00am

2FarGone No One of Consequence

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2FarGone

Bio page: 2FarGone
Joined: Mar 2, 2001
Last login: Nov 15, 2024
Total posts: 50,480 (681 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

POLL: What’s you confidence level of BYU finishing 3-0?

SBB

Nov 13, 7:06am

We are all seeing it as entirely possible, which was ridiculous to think about just a few weeks ago

2FarGone

Nov 13, 7:12am

25% is too low, but 50% may be a little too high. I think BYU has a greater than

cougarfan84

Nov 13, 7:17am

Combining probabilities has never made any sense with football because every game happens in a vacuum

2FarGone

Nov 13, 7:20am

Yes every game happens in a vacuum but going 3-0 does not. It's dependent on

cougarfann888

Nov 13, 7:26am

No, it doesn’t.

2FarGone

Nov 13, 7:32am

That's not how statistics works

Greg Kite's 'stache

Nov 13, 7:37am

No wonder some games suck.

Shihan

Nov 13, 7:29am

What you are referring to is what in statistics is referred to as "independent events" vs "joint events"

Greg Kite's 'stache

Nov 13, 7:30am

FPI projection to win all 3 is around 11%

snowbird

Nov 13, 7:17am

I'm not tracking that. According to FPI, BYU has 61.1% vs. Kansas, 50.1% vs.

cougarfan84

Nov 13, 7:23am

Also, FPI has been really wrong about BYU almost the whole season. Their

Japan Coug

Nov 13, 7:29am

Weenies--100%

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