wins out (which would include win over BYU). At that point we would be tied w/ Colorado on the 3rd tiebreaker and it would proceed to 4th tiebreaker which we probably lose. Odds of that happening are very remote (less than 1%) but it is technically a possibility.

So basically if BYU wins out they are in the CCG.
If BYU finishes 3-1 there is a 99.5%+ chance they are in the CCG
If BYU finishes 2-2 then they need some help and may be in trouble with tiebreakers.