after we see where the losses fall. The two conferences are close enough in strength that any 1-loss team will get in over any 2-loss team in the other conference. There could be a close call, but odds are it will sort itself out.

Regarding our odds of getting in at 11-1, someone ran the simulations earlier and found that we have a 96% chance of making the CCG even with the most pessimistic interpretation of the tiebreaker rules. There is some grey area in the rules that I think will work in our favor in the most likely scenarios.

If we somehow miss the CCG at 11-1 I don’t see any realistic scenario we don’t get the CFP invite. There would have to be multiple 9-3 SEC/B10 teams that get in ahead of us and I don’t see any chance of that happening.