power conference team, to not be ranked in the Top 12 at the end of the season. At least based on historical AP polls.

I can recall 1-loss BYU teams being ranked highly late in the season in 1980 (#12), 1983 (#7), 1990 (#4 before the loss at Hawaii in Dec.), 1996 (#5), and 2020 (#11). Also, in 2009 BYU had 2 losses and still finished ranked #12. And in 1999 we were 8-1 and ranked #15 (and #14 in Coaches poll IIRC) before losing at Wyoming; had we gotten to 10-1, we would have almost certainly been in the Top 12, and probably higher.

The exceptions were 1979, when we went 11-1 and finished #13 (after loss to Indiana in bowl game) and 2001, in which we were ranked #19 when we were 12-1 (having been blown out at Hawaii the week before). But those BYU teams had very weak SOS and no wins over good/ranked power teams.

I’m too lazy to do the research, but I can’t recall any power conference team with only 1 loss and double digit wins not being ranked in the Top 11 or 12 late in the season. It has probably happened, but it is unusual.

Having said this, in the brave new world of CFP, with 2 dominant conferences getting most or all of the at-large bids, I wouldn’t be shocked if we went 11-1 and got left out. Let’s hope SMU and K-State keep winning and making us look good.