specific situation a team or game is in: the opponent, are you at home or on the road, are you a favorite or underdog, who has the momentum, how are the teams playing, do you have an experienced QB or a young inexperienced one, are you tied or ahead or behind, and by how much, etc.

A good coach will use the analytics as a tool, but also consider all those other factors and risks that analytics don’t/can’t consider or tease out in their averages.