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Sep 29, 2024
10:07
:49
am
Japan Coug
Intervention Needed
I agree that this is a risk. But it must be balanced against the risk of failure
which isn’t just missing out on 3 easy points, but also the impact it has on both teams’ confidence levels, and on who has the momentum.
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Japan Coug
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Japan Coug
Joined
Feb 3, 2003
Last login
Sep 29, 2024
Total posts
38,224 (521 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
utah’s early failed 4th-down conversions highlight a problem with analytics,
Japan Coug
9:43am
They kind of do actually. In that they are developed from the future result of the play
darkcoug
9:46am
I don’t think they sufficiently account for the risk of momentum swings if you
Japan Coug
9:51am
Maybe. The data is built from the average of all similar situations
darkcoug
9:57am
And that is the problem with averages, they don’t (and can’t) account for the
Japan Coug
10:45am
Yup, definitely coaching failure.
sfeuz
9:47am
4th and 2 inside your 10 means you should go for it almost always.
HarlemCoug
9:49am
Yes, that’s what the analytics say. I’m saying that a smart coach will also
Japan Coug
9:53am
If you miss the other team still has the ball with 90+ yards to go. It's very rare for teams to get 7 points on a drive
HarlemCoug
9:58am
Well, that approach definitely didn’t work for utah last night. When I saw that
Japan Coug
10:04am
Yeah it did, Arizona only got 3 points from those two drives
groy
10:14am
You have to look beyond what happened in the actual next drive, IMO, and look at
Japan Coug
10:20am
I'm very surprised my the take that Whittingham's pride lost the game for Utah
bythenumbers
10:12am
I agree with your assessment, but I also think there’s one thing not
Blue Heart
9:59am
I agree that this is a risk. But it must be balanced against the risk of failure
Japan Coug
10:07am
First one, good with it. 2nd? Kick it after failing the first time
1984coug
9:52am
Problem with analytics is, it isn’t based on a specific team. Utah’s O struggles
MustacheMan
10:10am
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