No. Large movements either way indicate there's a big problem ahead that we HAVE

Sep 18, 2024
12:38:31pm

rcbyufan Truly Addicted User

To avoid.

If there's no big problem ahead, there can be slight movements either way.

Large cuts or raises in short amounts of time are crystal clear indications of an approaching iceberg that we're maneuvering around.

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rcbyufan

Bio page: rcbyufan
Joined: Aug 18, 2010
Last login: Sep 19, 2024
Total posts: 32,266 (1,122 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

50 basis points. Wow.

RexIdaCoug

Sep 18, 12:01pm

Whoa. I would've bet the farm on 25.

gangbusters

Sep 18, 12:02pm

The market was already pricing in the 50 basis points.

RH84025

Sep 18, 12:03pm

CME tool said it was 50-50 today

RexIdaCoug

Sep 18, 12:05pm

I read market was pricing 50 in (65% chance) but most economists were betting 25

BikeGuy

Sep 18, 12:40pm

Me too. I’m very surprised.

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:04pm

I noticed yesterday that mortgage rates were down about .5%.

Florwood

Sep 18, 12:04pm

No, mortgage rates follow the 10 year note, not the overnight rate

RexIdaCoug

Sep 18, 12:06pm

Crystal clear indication that the economy is not doing well.

rcbyufan

Sep 18, 12:07pm

and that an election is around the corner

PabloSanchezz

Sep 18, 12:09pm

Or inflation has cooled enough.

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:10pm

AKA the economy is not doing well.

rcbyufan

Sep 18, 12:12pm

By what metric? GDP growth 3 percent in Q2

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:16pm

GDP numbers are propped up by government spending & the

gopman

Sep 18, 12:20pm

We will have to take your word for it if we can’t use any metrics.

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:23pm

LOL. The metric is the .50 bps rate cut. You can play hide the football all

rcbyufan

Sep 18, 12:27pm

So when we raised interest rates record levels

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:30pm

No. Large movements either way indicate there's a big problem ahead that we HAVE

rcbyufan

Sep 18, 12:38pm

We all acknowledge we are working our way

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:46pm

If you believe the numbers they give you I have a bridge......

gopman

Sep 18, 12:57pm

So there is no reason to have any discussions at all.

NYCougz

Sep 18, 1:09pm

How many times do I have to refute the data on this board?

gopman

Sep 18, 1:24pm

I don’t know….7?

NYCougz

Sep 18, 1:30pm

To be clear, I'm not saying don't believe the numbers. I'm saying the economy is

rcbyufan

Sep 18, 1:30pm

I understand your position.

NYCougz

Sep 18, 1:34pm

You can't. Because the fed can just keep cutting rates there is no play

rcbyufan

Sep 18, 1:39pm

But eventually it collapses? How will we know that you are right.

NYCougz

Sep 18, 1:43pm

Very doubtful. For the last 12 months the FED has emphasized shelter inflation.

rad dawg

Sep 18, 12:16pm

Or that CPI numbers are made up.

Longseason

Sep 18, 12:56pm

I’ll double down on that and do even know we aren’t living in a computer sim?

NYCougz

Sep 18, 1:16pm

Expecting two more 25 basis point cuts this year as well if I read it right?

SlyCoug

Sep 18, 12:09pm

So we are officially in a recession then

CougarCanuck76

Sep 18, 12:10pm

We have been in a manufacturing recession for the last 12 months.

SausageKing

Sep 18, 12:11pm

Can confirm

Cougarclaw

Sep 18, 12:24pm

Inflation my old friend. Welcome back. This seems premature.

Ycrazy

Sep 18, 12:10pm

Feels like 25 basis points would make more sense.

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:12pm

This is my concern as well.

RexIdaCoug

Sep 18, 12:14pm

Dont worry, they will change the CPI again until it matches their model.

Longseason

Sep 18, 12:57pm

I was hoping for some non-basis points. Very disappointed

Nikomedes

Sep 18, 12:11pm

And some say that the Fed is not political. BS.

BlackBart

Sep 18, 12:14pm

I am in that camp. I don't think they are political.

RexIdaCoug

Sep 18, 12:17pm

Dems said the same thing about the Fed

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:17pm

I saw a pretty good bump in the first five minutes and now I’m back to where

RC Vikings

Sep 18, 12:15pm

It’s back up again

RC Vikings

Sep 18, 12:29pm

Can someone explain this to me like I'm 5?

ldssdl

Sep 18, 12:22pm

Interest rates in this country that you use to buy a house or a car

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