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Sep 18, 2024
12:20
:34
pm
gopman
All-American
GDP numbers are propped up by government spending & the
Dept. of Labor stops counting people out of the workforce after several weeks (forget the number of weeks-16 weeks IIRC).
The U3 & U6 numbers don't reflect the ACTUAL unemployment numbers. The economy is NOT doing well by any metric.
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gopman
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gopman
Joined
Feb 15, 2006
Last login
Nov 9, 2024
Total posts
3,858 (17 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
50 basis points. Wow.
RexIdaCoug
Sep 18, 12:01pm
Whoa. I would've bet the farm on 25.
gangbusters
Sep 18, 12:02pm
The market was already pricing in the 50 basis points.
RH84025
Sep 18, 12:03pm
CME tool said it was 50-50 today
RexIdaCoug
Sep 18, 12:05pm
I read market was pricing 50 in (65% chance) but most economists were betting 25
BikeGuy
Sep 18, 12:40pm
Me too. I’m very surprised.
NYCougz
Sep 18, 12:04pm
I noticed yesterday that mortgage rates were down about .5%.
Florwood
Sep 18, 12:04pm
No, mortgage rates follow the 10 year note, not the overnight rate
RexIdaCoug
Sep 18, 12:06pm
Crystal clear indication that the economy is not doing well.
rcbyufan
Sep 18, 12:07pm
and that an election is around the corner
PabloSanchezz
Sep 18, 12:09pm
Or inflation has cooled enough.
NYCougz
Sep 18, 12:10pm
AKA the economy is not doing well.
rcbyufan
Sep 18, 12:12pm
By what metric? GDP growth 3 percent in Q2
NYCougz
Sep 18, 12:16pm
GDP numbers are propped up by government spending & the
gopman
Sep 18, 12:20pm
We will have to take your word for it if we can’t use any metrics.
NYCougz
Sep 18, 12:23pm
LOL. The metric is the .50 bps rate cut. You can play hide the football all
rcbyufan
Sep 18, 12:27pm
So when we raised interest rates record levels
NYCougz
Sep 18, 12:30pm
No. Large movements either way indicate there's a big problem ahead that we HAVE
rcbyufan
Sep 18, 12:38pm
We all acknowledge we are working our way
NYCougz
Sep 18, 12:46pm
If you believe the numbers they give you I have a bridge......
gopman
Sep 18, 12:57pm
So there is no reason to have any discussions at all.
NYCougz
Sep 18, 1:09pm
How many times do I have to refute the data on this board?
gopman
Sep 18, 1:24pm
I don’t know….7?
NYCougz
Sep 18, 1:30pm
To be clear, I'm not saying don't believe the numbers. I'm saying the economy is
rcbyufan
Sep 18, 1:30pm
I understand your position.
NYCougz
Sep 18, 1:34pm
You can't. Because the fed can just keep cutting rates there is no play
rcbyufan
Sep 18, 1:39pm
But eventually it collapses? How will we know that you are right.
NYCougz
Sep 18, 1:43pm
Very doubtful. For the last 12 months the FED has emphasized shelter inflation.
rad dawg
Sep 18, 12:16pm
Or that CPI numbers are made up.
Longseason
Sep 18, 12:56pm
I’ll double down on that and do even know we aren’t living in a computer sim?
NYCougz
Sep 18, 1:16pm
Expecting two more 25 basis point cuts this year as well if I read it right?
SlyCoug
Sep 18, 12:09pm
So we are officially in a recession then
CougarCanuck76
Sep 18, 12:10pm
We have been in a manufacturing recession for the last 12 months.
SausageKing
Sep 18, 12:11pm
Can confirm
Cougarclaw
Sep 18, 12:24pm
Inflation my old friend. Welcome back. This seems premature.
Ycrazy
Sep 18, 12:10pm
Feels like 25 basis points would make more sense.
NYCougz
Sep 18, 12:12pm
This is my concern as well.
RexIdaCoug
Sep 18, 12:14pm
Dont worry, they will change the CPI again until it matches their model.
Longseason
Sep 18, 12:57pm
I was hoping for some non-basis points. Very disappointed
Nikomedes
Sep 18, 12:11pm
And some say that the Fed is not political. BS.
BlackBart
Sep 18, 12:14pm
I am in that camp. I don't think they are political.
RexIdaCoug
Sep 18, 12:17pm
Dems said the same thing about the Fed
NYCougz
Sep 18, 12:17pm
I saw a pretty good bump in the first five minutes and now I’m back to where
RC Vikings
Sep 18, 12:15pm
It’s back up again
RC Vikings
Sep 18, 12:29pm
Can someone explain this to me like I'm 5?
ldssdl
Sep 18, 12:22pm
Interest rates in this country that you use to buy a house or a car
Cougarclaw
Sep 18, 12:26pm
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