I've never been upgraded to first class in my life. Even comfort+ is very rare. I traveled to Europe on a high fare trip (booked 1 week in advance) and was #33 on the upgrade list. There were 2 seats. I really enjoyed my middle coach seat both directions.
Seems like 1/2 of the passengers have status these days. Usually I just try to book an exit row and be done with it (I'm 6'8").
I did go to a really overcrowded lounge once.