Home games against bad teams that we almost never lose (lightning does strike from time to time, but it's rare even for mediocre BYU teams to lose a bad OOC game at home). So winning only 10 games all season would mean going 2-22 in all of our other games combined (regular season and conference tournament).
I think a lot of us would not have been surprised if BYU was around or below .500 on the season, but that's more about respect for the B12, which is the top league in college BB, than any disrespect for BYU.
After OOC play this year, I estimated that BYU could get to the NCAA tournament even if winning as little as 1/3rd of our conference games and the last Bracketology had us at a 5 seed, which was before last night's win. Also, Texas is sitting at 3-5 in conference play and they're still included in the projected field.