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Oct 2, 2023
4:13:36pm

ColonelMustard Truly Addicted User

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ColonelMustard

Previous username: ColonelMustard7
Bio page: ColonelMustard
Joined: Jan 8, 2012
Last login: Dec 24, 2024
Total posts: 14,855 (1,789 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

BYU won despite being dead last

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

10/2/23 11:09am

2 TOs leading to 14 pts did the trick.

Turnpike Lane

10/2/23 11:10am

Explain the net success rate to me.

IdahoCoug

10/2/23 11:12am

RE: Explain the net success rate to me.

foofcoug

10/2/23 11:24am

Thanks.

IdahoCoug

10/2/23 11:24am

That’s not the same version he uses. His is just a binary % of plays with +EPA

molodyets

10/2/23 4:07pm

Tried googling it. Seems there's several different ways people define it.

Corn Pop

10/2/23 11:25am

RE: Tried googling it. Seems there's several different ways people define it.

foofcoug

10/2/23 11:29am

I think I understand it now. It's the winner's success rate relative to the

Corn Pop

10/2/23 11:55am

Thank you

ColonelMustard

10/2/23 4:13pm

He doesn't place "one of the teams at zero". The losing team is placed at zero

HairyCougar

10/2/23 12:06pm

The losing team isn't one of the teams?

Corn Pop

10/2/23 12:10pm

Of course, but it's not randomly selecting "ONE OF the teams". It's the losing

HairyCougar

10/2/23 12:17pm

You rushed in to "actually", but "actually" the losing team is one of the teams.

Corn Pop

10/2/23 12:20pm

It's not random. It's the LOSING team.

HairyCougar

10/2/23 12:24pm

Perhaps you should see this post, which came 11 minutes before your first post:

Corn Pop

10/2/23 12:28pm

You're welcome for providing you help

HairyCougar

10/2/23 12:45pm

Well, it's been 40 minutes and you still haven't figured out the losing team

Corn Pop

10/2/23 12:59pm

Nice try, Pop Corn.

HairyCougar

10/2/23 1:04pm

Hack 😀

nephicoug

10/2/23 11:12am

every team that isn't on the 0 line won the game, so by definition,

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 11:13am

They’re dead last in that chart.

Indy Coug

10/2/23 11:16am

by your definition, "dead last" means "furthest to the left" ?

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 11:18am

Is -.10 less or more than 0 in your opinion?

byuTX

10/2/23 11:19am

I don't think you understand the graph. The losing team is 0 every single time

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 11:25am

And what team had the lowest net success rate from last weekend's games? I think you're new to this graph/stat

byuTX

10/2/23 11:27am

Nebraska.

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 11:32am

To help you understand, note how one team in each game is 0

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 11:46am

And of all the winning programs, who had the lowest net success rate?

byuTX

10/2/23 11:49am

lol. Glad you finally get it. Now go back and read Indy's post.

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 11:56am

I think you're new to this graph. It's listed this way to help gamblers know which teams are trustworthy (Michigan

byuTX

10/2/23 11:59am

I don't care how it's used. "BYU won despite being dead last" << this is the

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 12:03pm

also, I'm pretty sure gamblers would care more about a graph in this format:

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 12:06pm

Gamblers would use a tootsie pop wrapper if they thought it gave them an edge. But I've seen tweets like Indy's every

byuTX

10/2/23 12:11pm

It's ok you didn't know

byuTX

10/2/23 12:10pm

That's not even necessarily accurate

HairyCougar

10/2/23 12:44pm

I assume you're talking about "success rate." He says "net," so it's accurate.

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 12:45pm

Nah, it's relative to the opponent.

HairyCougar

10/2/23 1:04pm

"what team had the lowest net success rate" is the question

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 1:10pm

No, I'm not. To tell you understand why I'll ask you question.

HairyCougar

10/2/23 1:24pm

"net" success rate is the difference between the two teams in the game.

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 1:28pm

You're getting it!!! Doesn't mean Nebraska's TRUE success rate was necessarily

HairyCougar

10/2/23 1:31pm

gosh. Go back. The question has the word "net" in it. The answer is Nebraska.

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 1:32pm

Net and gross aren't appropriate words in this scenario. Margin or relative

HairyCougar

10/2/23 1:34pm

the heck is wrong with you? "you're wrong" then you go on to explain why I'm

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 1:35pm

Stop gaslighting. I'm right and you're wrong.

HairyCougar

10/2/23 1:37pm

RE: Stop gaslighting. I'm right and you're wrong.

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 1:40pm

You are. Net has no meaning here. Differential compared to Michigan's does.

HairyCougar

10/2/23 1:46pm

<< Deleted >>

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 1:40pm

Dead last of teams that won.

All-American

10/2/23 11:18am

yes, but by Indy's phrasing that's not what he meant. "*despite* being dead last

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 11:19am

Right. An important clarification. Moving on.

All-American

10/2/23 11:20am

They’re leftmost in the graph — therefore they’re last.

Indy Coug

10/2/23 11:20am

If you removed byu, then your same statement would apply to Utah State

SalmonOfCapistrano

10/2/23 11:21am

Former username checks out

Indy Coug

10/2/23 11:24am

Last among winning teams

HairyCougar

10/2/23 12:03pm

This is the thing that concerns me. I'm sure the Arkansas game would look like this too

darkcoug

10/2/23 11:26am

We were negative against Arkansas as well.

rcbyufan

10/2/23 11:48am

Doom.......doom!

TNT

10/2/23 2:02pm

How this guy is defining "success rate" isn't overly correlated with winning

HairyCougar

10/2/23 12:09pm

We almost won 42-20 (bad snap ugh). There's more to football than this stat.

puntersarepeople

10/2/23 12:18pm

Yes. That's why about 40% of the teams that were negative actually won.

HairyCougar

10/2/23 1:05pm

Too many dang ten yard runs given up.

Genghis Spreads

10/2/23 2:40pm

Teams have played 4-5 games. Quality of competition varies. I'm concerned but

cdr88

10/2/23 4:12pm

I found a pretty sweet stat that explains how BYU won.

canuckchuck

10/2/23 4:14pm

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