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Mar 8, 2022
11:44
:03
am
Backcountry
All-American
Dent is a goober. The dude has made so many bad calls recently.
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Backcountry
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The Lone Wolf
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Simple Jack
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Backcountry
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Sep 6, 2008
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Aug 8, 2023
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Messages
Author
Time
Housing crash?
stenso
3/8/22 9:02am
My realtor SIL is insistent that it is only going to continue at its current trajectory.
Ragnar Danneskjold
3/8/22 9:05am
lol the realtors in my ward say the exact same thing
letthewookieewin
3/8/22 9:07am
The reason they say that is because of a lack of inventory and the time it takes
RexIdaCoug
3/8/22 9:14am
The reason they say that is because they don't know any better and just want to sell homes. Come on now. Ragnar is right
letthewookieewin
3/8/22 9:16am
A rule to live by. Never get your information about something by the salesman
Mayor of Cougartown
3/8/22 9:19am
Haha, you think I heard that from a realtor?
RexIdaCoug
3/8/22 9:30am
The reason they say that is because they are shysters. Realtors aren't economists and their trade gives them no special
Tokolosh
3/8/22 9:29am
I agree that they are shysters. I am staying that there is data to support
RexIdaCoug
3/8/22 9:33am
I kinda disagree. The anecdotal info they get from being involved in lots of
Socrates Johnson
3/8/22 11:08am
a good agent knows that the last $500k house they sold had 20 offers and 40 tours... and now the next $500k house they
HarlemCoug
3/8/22 12:19pm
There’s only a lack of inventory relative to a given amount of demand. When people cite a shortage as a reason prices
JollyGreenGiant
3/8/22 9:35am
I don't think that is entirely the case here.
RexIdaCoug
3/8/22 9:37am
The biggest thing you aren't mentioning is just not the cost of the house
byublue42
3/8/22 10:59am
You are 100% correct about how interest rates could change and it could slow
RexIdaCoug
3/8/22 12:02pm
Historically 30-years are always CPI +4%. Since 2009 its been +2%. Either way
Socrates Johnson
3/8/22 1:07pm
haha. 7% mortgage rates in a year. Lol. You are dreaming.
RexIdaCoug
3/8/22 1:14pm
You think banks will loan at a loss? CPI was 7.5% most recently. That means
Socrates Johnson
3/8/22 1:38pm
Interest rates aren’t going to stay at current levels for very long
cougarfann888
3/8/22 1:48pm
What rate do you see inflation settling at?
Socrates Johnson
3/8/22 1:54pm
I think we are seeing a lot of short term factors driving inflation.
cougarfann888
3/8/22 2:28pm
You really think we'll get back to 2-3% soon? I don't see that happening.
Socrates Johnson
3/8/22 2:49pm
There was a technical change to the reporting on those numbers iirc
RexIdaCoug
3/8/22 2:52pm
There definitely was-- in May 2020. It was to add money market deposit accounts
Socrates Johnson
3/8/22 3:20pm
You are right with what you are saying
byublue42
3/8/22 3:01pm
Mortgage rates aren't tied to prime. Nice try
RexIdaCoug
3/8/22 3:21pm
I should have said mortgage rates are affected by the prime rate, as is any
byublue42
3/8/22 4:35pm
Not a fan of realtors, but in the past month...
dwhitebud
3/8/22 9:32am
Exactly my point. I think realtors are in for a rough go of things
RexIdaCoug
3/8/22 9:35am
There is an untapped supply of houses that could hit the market if prices keep
Nat Gas Man
3/8/22 9:39am
Institutional buyers. Bought between 19% and 23% of homes last year. They will keep buying. No other good options.
grandpacoug
3/8/22 11:02am
Has any realtor ever had a pessimistic outlook on the market?
sportsgeek82
3/8/22 10:49am
That seems plausible. But I’d think there would be a flood of homes for sale
WDaddy
3/8/22 9:06am
But more inventory will drive prices down.
Backcountry
3/8/22 9:24am
But flooding the inventory would saturate the market, causing a drop in prices
volleyjiver
3/8/22 9:27am
It depends on rental rates. If interest rates rise then rental rates will shoot
johnnybyu
3/8/22 9:37am
Doesn't make logical sense. Inflation can't self-correct. It only gets worse. Assets are the best thing to have.
Unibro
3/8/22 9:07am
There are lots of things that are questionable right now. Ivy Zelman who is
Nat Gas Man
3/8/22 9:10am
I don't follow this closely. Are there a massive number of mortgages
BYU71
3/8/22 9:11am
I am not sure that is the issue this time as much as rock bottom
crack
3/8/22 9:14am
I think real prices adjusted for inflation will go down. I am not sure nominal
johnnybyu
3/8/22 9:21am
Good question. I imagine if a lot of people in homes are mortgaged to the max
BYU71
3/8/22 9:22am
If wage inflation doesn't follow price inflation, and the fed significantly
DC12
3/8/22 9:31am
There is evidence people are over extending yes.
rad dawg
3/8/22 9:36am
<< Deleted >>
cougarfann888
3/8/22 9:57am
Who is defaulting on loans these days? Aren't they trying to avoid that as much
Adwight
3/8/22 9:12am
Supply is the problem.
byujdmba
3/8/22 9:15am
We need so many HS graduates to go into Trades in lieu of college.
Mayor of Cougartown
3/8/22 9:20am
This. Also hoping that technology like 3D printing with cement can streamline
Ikuna
3/8/22 9:30am
RE: Housing crash?
Backcountry
3/8/22 9:23am
I think people are sitting on a lot of equity in their homes. They may have mortgaged to the max when they bought but
HarlemCoug
3/8/22 9:27am
Right that's the thing, we desperately need more tradespeople. The
Mayor of Cougartown
3/8/22 9:31am
That’s not a thing coming back honestly. People aren’t going into trades
pink22
3/8/22 9:49am
The trades were mostly Hispanics and there has been a net negative
Nat Gas Man
3/8/22 10:02am
You have a decent amount of equity if prices are where they are now. If they
pink22
3/8/22 9:47am
Only if rental rates drop a lot. Few people are going to sell to save their
johnnybyu
3/8/22 9:50am
Yes, relative to inflation. You probably won't see huge decline in nominal terms
Pasadena
3/8/22 9:51am
Agreed doubt we will see big nominal drops. I do think there are going to be a
johnnybyu
3/8/22 9:55am
The roofing industry is predicting a strong year in 2022.
Cougarclaw
3/8/22 10:15am
I think changing rates will have a bigger impact
niqmadu
3/8/22 10:51am
House Prices need to crash, most disagree with me except Harry Dent and my FIL
DCCougFan
3/8/22 11:27am
Dent is a goober. The dude has made so many bad calls recently.
Backcountry
3/8/22 11:44am
Odds are probably the same either way. There is always risk.
Sooner Cougar
3/8/22 11:54am
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