Rates can't go much higher for very long.

Mar 31, 2021
11:54:58pm

lyrok Contributor

Look at the 30-yr trend of 10 yr treasuries. They go up but then come back lower. This is an effect of the amount of debt.

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lyrok

Bio page: lyrok
Joined: Jun 30, 2011
Last login: Jun 9, 2021
Total posts: 730 (1 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

I've really started wondering about the results of a persistent decline in real estate values-

BeyondTheMark All-American

3/31/21 11:02pm

I’ve been wondering the same thing

TicoBrown

3/31/21 11:05pm

It's been 20 years of ridiculously low rates. It may not last forever, but it's

jkccoug

3/31/21 11:06pm

With Democrats piling onto Trumps spend-thriftiness it makes me think Carter-like Stagflation

BeyondTheMark

3/31/21 11:09pm

Yeah I have thought the same thing. The biggest difference is we have yet

jkccoug

3/31/21 11:12pm

Very difficult to predict but here are some thoughts

Jericho

3/31/21 11:11pm

Good thoughts. Inflation sort of HAS to happen if you want to reduce debt &/or

jkccoug

3/31/21 11:14pm

True, but the problem is that spending will continue to outpace inflation

Backcountry

3/31/21 11:22pm

It always seems to

jkccoug

3/31/21 11:24pm

That is the thing slowing me down on selling. If *general* inflation is coming, then

BeyondTheMark

3/31/21 11:19pm

How could prices not fall significantly when moratorium on evictions ends?

Bandersnatch

3/31/21 11:12pm

Depends. I haven't seen data on just how big this is. how much stuff are we

jkccoug

3/31/21 11:15pm

I think the numbers are massive, personally, but inflation could be massive too

Jericho

3/31/21 11:17pm

If nothing else, the reality is that there is essentially NO for sale inventory

jkccoug

3/31/21 11:22pm

I would say that we are DUE for a market correction, but I have been saying that

Jericho

3/31/21 11:24pm

I have thought that too. Been wondering lately though if the last few years have

jkccoug

3/31/21 11:27pm

looks like 4 million mortgages and a much higher number of apartments

Nat Gas Man

4/1/21 12:03am

I believe last I saw 1.4% of mortgages were 4 or more months behind which

cougarfann888

3/31/21 11:54pm

Because the banks don't want to foreclose on a bunch of people.

byubyu

3/31/21 11:19pm

Not if they don't want a bunch of those mortgages they're holding to suddenly become worthless

BeyondTheMark

3/31/21 11:20pm

You'd be surprised. Some banks who sold their mortgages to fannie mae but retained servicing, like Wells Fargo, have

vegasnative

3/31/21 11:52pm

I don't think there will be that many foreclosures. Prices have gone up enough

BYUFBDAD

3/31/21 11:58pm

Home prices are sticky.

BostonCougar

3/31/21 11:32pm

It makes sense if interest rates increase

Fargo

3/31/21 11:36pm

Not so. From 1970 to 1980, mortgage rates rose from about 7% to about 14%. During that time, home prices rose by nearly

Smack'sWife

4/1/21 12:07am

But that is the Stagflation era- inflation generally was outpacing interest rates and salaries were

BeyondTheMark

4/1/21 12:14am

This makes sense if those were the only factors, but interest rates increase whe

johnnybyu

4/1/21 9:37am

Rates can't go much higher for very long.

lyrok

3/31/21 11:54pm

a crash in the stock market would also affect the housing market, especially

Nat Gas Man

4/1/21 12:09am

You'll start to see "creative" financing like wraparounds.

YSMACK

4/1/21 12:49am

Inventory is apparently still very tight (link)

jkccoug

4/1/21 3:54am

There’s almost like a sort of deflation happening in the housing market

hansel

4/1/21 6:33am

There’s a real estate crash coming and it’s going to be a hard one. My bet is

BR549

4/1/21 8:04am

What other housing crash have you experienced in your life besides 2007-2010?

cougarfann888

4/1/21 8:42am

There are some markets that are susceptible to crashes. PHX, Miami, Vegas

Nat Gas Man

4/1/21 8:55am

Aside from the recent ones, the one in the 80s was really significant but

BR549

4/1/21 11:12am

The 07-10 is really the only housing crash we have had nationwide

cougarfann888

4/1/21 12:56pm

Not anytime soon

Backcountry

4/1/21 5:36pm

Not this time

Backcountry

4/1/21 8:44am

I agree on the crash but don't think it will be as hard or as long as 2007-8

johnnybyu

4/1/21 9:39am

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