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Mar 27, 2020
5:06
:15
pm
Josef K
Intervention Needed
Seems like it will be more spread out though no?
New York hopefully peaks soon but Charlotte or Minneapolis is probably weeks later?
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Josef K
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Jay Kay
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Josef K
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Jun 9, 2020
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Messages
Author
Time
This is a more realistic model than previous dire ones
CSoul
3/27/20 4:58pm
Maybe herd immunity is already in full force. I hope this is true out of Oxford:
Virginia Ute
3/27/20 4:59pm
The current trajectory I am seeing is we will hit peak in a week
CSoul
3/27/20 5:01pm
Or suggest that this virus mutated to a more lethal form.
IGlowInTheDark
3/27/20 5:05pm
Dun dun dun
CSoul
3/27/20 5:06pm
It may mutate slowly, but when it does...badness happens.
IGlowInTheDark
3/27/20 5:15pm
That would be easy to prove
CallingDingo
3/27/20 5:12pm
That is what they are doing
CSoul
3/27/20 5:13pm
If these Oxford studies are correct and it's so widespread, why do so few test
mannheimadler
3/27/20 5:13pm
They could have been counted as flu deaths or mostly carried by the young
CSoul
3/27/20 5:15pm
I thought many of the current tests are to see if you currently have it
webster242
3/27/20 5:25pm
Positive tests are for coronavirus, not antibodies.
Harbinger
3/27/20 5:26pm
This. If you had it and didn’t have symptoms or did and are better, you’re not going to get the test to begin with, and
Virginia Ute
3/27/20 6:46pm
The study makes no such claim
bythenumbers
3/27/20 5:34pm
What do you mean by "testing we are seeing" nobody is currently being tested
Lance71
3/27/20 6:15pm
Not true
bythenumbers
3/27/20 8:21pm
Dr. Birx said yesterday that to date the virus has not had an attack rate above
Bostonblue
3/27/20 7:55pm
Seems like it will be more spread out though no?
Josef K
3/27/20 5:06pm
NY and Michigan peak will be the U.S. peak
CSoul
3/27/20 5:07pm
even with large metros like LA and SF lagging only a little behind?
Josef K
3/27/20 5:09pm
The United States is a less homogenous population than any in the world
CSoul
3/27/20 5:11pm
We know you are really hoping for it to be bad.
BYU '80
3/27/20 7:00pm
I'm convinced that we are going to be stuck in restrictions longer than
wabluecoug
3/27/20 5:08pm
I like that model much more then others
byukarl
3/27/20 5:10pm
Yes it does, you can read the methods linked from it.
CSoul
3/27/20 5:11pm
What do you think about this as a way to potentially get us back to work?
ReyOso
3/27/20 5:13pm
What stops the virus from spiking again when we lift restrictions? Aren't we
mannheimadler
3/27/20 5:14pm
There would be a large number of people that are immune for whatever time
CSoul
3/27/20 5:19pm
The state by state projections are what matter most. That’s why I like this site.
YIsForBrigham
3/27/20 5:24pm
I came across this today as well
bythenumbers
3/27/20 5:35pm
Even in that model, NY is screwed.
benny1982
3/27/20 5:40pm
Sweden’s numbers will probably show first.
PorterRockwell
3/27/20 5:57pm
how accurate can this really be? china's been at 3,200 or so deaths for a long t
bald man
3/27/20 6:01pm
China lies...
Harbinger
3/27/20 6:07pm
that is what say, maybe even hope, but the truth is we don't know.
bald man
3/27/20 6:41pm
Sure we do. They haven't had a new case in quite a few days.
Harbinger
3/27/20 6:44pm
Assumptions does not equate knowledge and proof. I believe they are lying.
bald man
3/27/20 6:53pm
His model is already over projecting deaths by 15% a day.
The Old Y
3/27/20 7:31pm
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