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Mar 25, 2020
11:48
:11
pm
CSoul
Intervention Needed
But their peak still hit at the same exact time as Italy and Iran
and the slope for France and Spain is slowing as they get close to the peak as well. So I don't know what to tell you about China's numbers. Maybe they divided it by 10? Who knows.
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CSoul
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tsm26
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CSoul
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Messages
Author
Time
I've been working on overlaying daily death data by country (links inside)
CSoul
3/25/20 11:36pm
Spain - yikes.
cougfanblue
3/25/20 11:40pm
Netherlands is also on a similar trajectory
CSoul
3/25/20 11:45pm
The U.K. too. And New York.
chilango
3/25/20 11:51pm
Obviously I would have to lower the start number, but Washington
CSoul
3/25/20 11:56pm
I think Washington has definitely hit its peak. UW hospital is slowing down, and
wabluecoug
3/26/20 12:01am
Yes it does. Much of their outbreak was confined to a large nursing home.
CougarThug
3/26/20 12:09am
I think they hit a peak even throwing that out. But with states and cities
CSoul
3/26/20 12:12am
I would be interested in Japan as we were supposed to go their for spring break.
Osteotome
3/26/20 2:11am
That's more a reflection on the amount of people they're testing. Which until this week was not much at all.
Cheesy Gordita
3/26/20 5:48am
I think closing schools and churches and gatherings was enough
Acorn
3/26/20 3:27am
Really makes that China data look believable, doesn’t it
Mike Honcho
3/25/20 11:46pm
But their peak still hit at the same exact time as Italy and Iran
CSoul
3/25/20 11:48pm
Yeah, less the shape and more the numbers is what I’m skeptical about
Mike Honcho
3/25/20 11:48pm
They incinerated their data.
cougfanblue
3/25/20 11:53pm
I'd guess urbanization rate, life expectancy and climate correlate strongly with
bruincoug
3/25/20 11:49pm
The only difference seems to be the height of the peak, not the timeframe
CSoul
3/25/20 11:52pm
Well, kind of. All of them went into lockdown and took dramatic action to try to
chilango
3/25/20 11:58pm
I think it controls for the peak size, not the shape
CSoul
3/25/20 11:59pm
I think it would also lengthen the amount of time before you reach the peak,
chilango
3/26/20 12:31am
Then there would be a difference between Iran, Italy, and China
CSoul
3/26/20 12:39am
Agreed...
777
3/26/20 12:00am
I mean why the difference in peak size
bruincoug
3/26/20 12:06am
I would expect the US to have a longer timeframe or perhaps multiple peaks
BYUCLA
3/26/20 12:06am
Seems likely. I expect early peaks to be highest, though (NY/NJ)
bruincoug
3/26/20 12:07am
Not much longer. And many areas just won't really have a "peak"
CSoul
3/26/20 12:10am
Right, the US is so large that it is more like a continent. For comparisons to
chilango
3/26/20 12:12am
I am getting state data and will link them tomorrow
CSoul
3/26/20 12:13am
For smaller states, you could also group them together into “natural” regions
chilango
3/26/20 12:19am
It's not like the virus is traveling by horseback. It's traveling by airplane.
777
3/26/20 12:17am
This time last week you denied it was a problem. Now it's flying.
ClackamasCoug
3/26/20 2:19am
Link? I've been saying it's everywhere for the last month.
777
3/26/20 2:26am
I don’t think anyone’s contended at any point that it’s not contagious
Mike Honcho
3/26/20 2:27am
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