I agree the Utes should win on paper but where I feel somewhat confident is in the matchups.

Our offensive strength is going to be TE and slot receivers. I think LB and safety is where your defense is most inexperienced so that can hopefully be exploited.

Your strength on defense is the DL which happens to go against our strength (I hope) the OL so hopefully that's a wash or at least not greatly exploited.

Your offensive strength until I see otherwise is the run game which also happens to go against our defensive strength which is stopping the run. Also a weakness at OL outweighs strengths in other places and I think your OL may be a little vulnerable, as would any OL not returning everyone, in game 1.

Our defensive weakness is pass rush but against a spread offense I think a good pass rush is neutralized anyway. Also our MLB is not set which you could possibly exploit with the TE or slot but I don't believe Covey is 100% despite what he says. For the type of game he plays it would be medically impossible for him to be at 100% right now.

On top of that you have a new offensive coordinator which will likely lead to some weakness in game 1.

Our coaching staff also has experience playing real teams in game 1. This is not a knock as I wish we didn’t have to but I do think there is some institutional knowledge that is worth something.