CBS Sports did an analysis looking at whether or not teams' recruiting rankings (i.e. the level of talent on a team) is reflected in their W/L records. Certainly less-talented teams can (and do) beat more talented teams, but on the whole, your chances of getting more wins are directly tied to your ability to recruit better (i.e. higher-rated) players.
Quotes from the article:
"[In head-to-head competition] the higher-ranked team according to the recruiting rankings won almost exactly two-thirds of the time (66.4 percent of the time, to be exact)"
"The evidence is overwhelming: Despite some obvious, anecdotal exceptions, on the whole recruiting rankings clearly are useful for creating a realistic baseline for expectations."
Here's a link to the full article:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/21641769