This year we were a Baylor upset away from having just 3 conferences left entering the sweet sixteen. As it stands we have 7 SEC, 4 Big Ten, 4 Big 12 and 1 ACC. Expect the trend of having only the 4 major conferences in the second weekend to continue as the gap is only about to get bigger.

Next year will be year 1 of revenue sharing with the players and will be $20.5 million for the major schools. For men's basketball that comes out to $3,157,779. With 15 available roster spots that is $218,506 per player. Can that money be unequally distributed I am not sure, but my guess is BYU does not do it that way and gives everyone on the team the same. Of course there is talk about putting a 12 person scholarship limit (paying 12 guys instead of 15 for the league) on it as well which would increase the payout per player, but limit the roster spots.

"Well AJ is making $5 million from BYU himself next year, are you saying we could only pay him $218,506 moving forward?" Nope NIL will still exist as it always has. You will hear rumors about how the NCAA will tighten up NIL deals, but to me it will never work. Why? Because you are putting caps on what student athletes can earn. If so and so wants to pay them $5 million to play for their favorite school how can the NCAA step in and say that is too much? Who are they to decide? Who are they to put a limit on what a student athlete can make from outside sources? I just don't see how it is lawful.

What about mid-major conferences? Well there-in lies the rub, right? CSU is a large mid-major institution. I read that they are expecting to pay $4-$5 million to student athletes in revenue sharing. Doing the math this would be less than $55,000 per player with 15 man rosters for basketball. So if you excel at CSU and decide to move to be the 12th best guy at the University of Colorado you at the very least get a 400% pay increase. No one will stay.. unless they find some donors to contribute NIL money.

The problem is the teams with the majority of big donors are the same teams that are willing to pay the $218,506 per student. So on top of a 400% pay increase you will likely get more, especially if you are a top transfer (similar to today).

So who will stay? Only those without better options.

The teams with the most money will continue to flourish and "Cinderellas" in the Big Dance will become less and less common.

Take a look at the SEC which came out of nowhere to be the top conference this year.

Their top players:
1st Team
Johni Broome Auburn used to play at Morehead St also conference player of the year
Walter Clayton Jr Florida used to play at Iona
Mark Sears Alabama used to play at Ohio
Zakai Ziegler and Wade Taylor - Two 4 years Seniors at their schools

6 out of the 2nd and 3rd Teams are also transfers from places like Duquesne, North Texas, North Florida, Virginia Tech, San Diego St....etc.

We just played a team whose best player played 4 years at Colorado St.

For the foreseeable future the cap between the haves and have nots will get larger and larger.

The one good thing? The consolidation of talent as well as getting more guys to stay longer in college means the overall talent level is increasing. For years the best players avoided college basketball by either playing one year or no years (especially foreign talent). The money is now there to get these guys in the NCAA tournament and they are coming at a higher rate than ever before. The overall level of play that you are seeing is the best it has been in at least 25 years.