Wanted to see if BYU has any shot to get to CFP with a loss in championship game. If they lose again in the regular season I don't think there is any argument, for this we'll assume they win their last two games.

Looking at the current AP top 20 - I went through to try to determine whether I thought BYU could move ahead or stay ahead of teams in that poll, with BYU winning their last two games. They say that you won't be punished for a conference championship game loss - so we'd need to see if that played out - but if BYU isn't even in position to get a berth before the game I don't see how losing it puts them in there.

Here is a chart - explanation below:



Oregon in dark red is the only team that I don't think can possibly fall below BYU. They only have 1 game left and a 1 loss Oregon won't be below BYU. The ones in dark red all could fall below BYU. They all have 2 games left - and for some of them I think they'd need to lose both games and for others only one - but the remaining schedule is pretty weak and using the Massey prediction rating there is 10% or less probability that they would do what I outlined (and therefore fall below BYU).

That's 7 teams that are virtual locks to be ahead of us.

The ones in yellow are currently ahead of us and have two games left. I think a single loss would move us ahead - but most are pretty weak, so those teams have ~50-70% chance of winning both games. It can happen, but not super likely. That's 6 teams - for 13 total ahead of us with those.

For teams behind us, I think Texas A&M could jump us if they beat both Auburn and Texas. I also think Army could move ahead of us if they win all 3 remaining games (that would include a victory against Notre Dame). Both of those are unlikely.

But, we are the top Big 12 team, so the victor against us would need to get in. So we'd need to move up 3 spots instead of just 2 from our current position of 14.

So we'd need 3 teams ahead of us to lose (probably of the 6 teams in yellow). But, BSU is one of those teams, and if they lose they'd fall behind us but then another conference champion would have to go in ahead of us. So, we need 3 of the 5 teams in yellow excluding BSU to lose. And both SMU and Miami can't be included in that. So we'd need basically Notre Dame, Alabama, and Ole Miss to all lose one of their last two games, or 2 of those to lose plus either SMU or Miami. And don't have Texas A&M and Army win out.

Let's say CFP rankings had us at 12 instead of 14 like the AP (ahead of BSU and SMU). That could help just a little bit - but Big 12 team and G5 still would jump ahead of us afterwards, so still would need to move up at least 2 spots before the games.

Long story short, in other words, win the Conference Championship!