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Nov 12, 2024
6:25:13am
zuko All-American
Weekly Simulations Update and Tiebreaker Scenarios Analysis
After another crazy week and another 1,000,000 simulations based on the Massey Ratings win probabilities, here's where things stand in the B12 CCG race:
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Colorado made a big jump up to 30% after defeating Texas Tech and seeing Iowa State fall again. At this point, I want to face Colorado in the CCG, so IMO that's good news.

Here are the most likely CCG matchups:
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I'm not a fan of rematches in football, so let's hope that Colorado wins out. In fact, Colorado now controls their own destiny thanks to Iowa State's second loss:
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And here is a breakdown of how likely everyone is to finish with various total wins:
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Especially note that BYU's expected win count is up to nearly 11 while Utah's has fallen to less than 5.5 lol. How sweet a reversal it would be if BYU wins the B12 and Utah struggles to get to 5 wins.

Here are the CCG race frontrunners' odds of making the CCG in various interesting scenarios:
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zuko
Previous username
ThetaSigma
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zuko
Joined
Aug 4, 2015
Last login
Nov 14, 2024
Total posts
3,340 (14 FO)
Related Threads Topic: BYU's CCG probabilities. We DO NOT want ISU and KSU to win until their game (zuko, Oct 25, 2024 at 10:12am)

Other Related Threads:
Weekly B12 Simulations Update. We won the bye week (zuko, Nov 3, 2024 at 3:46pm)
Detailed tiebreaker analysis between BYU, ISU, KSU, and Colorado (zuko, Nov 1, 2024 at 1:38pm)
It may be time to buy CCG tickets. The simulations are looking very pretty (zuko, Oct 27, 2024 at 9:37am)
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