After another crazy week and another 1,000,000 simulations based on the Massey Ratings win probabilities, here's where things stand in the B12 CCG race:

Colorado made a big jump up to 30% after defeating Texas Tech and seeing Iowa State fall again. At this point, I want to face Colorado in the CCG, so IMO that's good news.

Here are the most likely CCG matchups:

I'm not a fan of rematches in football, so let's hope that Colorado wins out. In fact, Colorado now controls their own destiny thanks to Iowa State's second loss:

And here is a breakdown of how likely everyone is to finish with various total wins:

Especially note that BYU's expected win count is up to nearly 11 while Utah's has fallen to less than 5.5 lol. How sweet a reversal it would be if BYU wins the B12 and Utah struggles to get to 5 wins.

Here are the CCG race frontrunners' odds of making the CCG in various interesting scenarios: