After another weekend and another 1,000,000 simulations, here are the odds of each B12 team reaching the CCG. Losses by ISU and KSU opened the door further for TTech and Colorado to try to make it in:


And here are the most likely CCG matchups. It's very satisfying to see BYU so much in this chart:


Here is each team's probability of making the CCG given their final win count. Incredibly, BYU has a 90% chance of getting in even if we lose 2 more games, and a 100% chance with 11 or 12 wins. KSU and ISU losing bought us some valuable wiggle room and increased the odds for several other teams. Fortunately, Utah's odds are still so low that they never made the CCG once in all my simulations (and they may be mathematically eliminated entirely, I'm not sure):

Here is each team's probability of finishing the regular season with different win counts:

Here are how this week's matchups affect our probability of making the CCG:

And here are three tables with BYU's probability of making the CCG in various interesting potential scenarios. Each row is an outcome for BYU and each column is an outcome for our fellow conference members. I may have gone a bit overboard with these 🤓 That said, if you can think of any scenarios you'd like to see the odds on that aren't in these tables, let me know and I can run simulations for them.