I pulled the play-by-play win probabilities from ESPN for the UCF game, and looked at which plays had the biggest impact on win probability. Here are the top few:

• 71.6%->87.5% (15.9 point swing) - Roberts catch and touchdown before the half. This was clearly huge. Our win probability shot up and really never looked back after this play.
• 51.1%->62.3% (11.2 point swing) - Retzlaff run on the opening drive to go up 7-0.
• 76.2%->84.0% (7.8 point swing) - Lassiter catch on 2nd and 20 (9:43 left in 2nd quarter). This scores high because the penalty on the play before dropped our chances. Lassiter's big gain wiped that out. This set up two LJ Martin runs for an eventual score to go up 17-0.
• 67.0%->74.1% (7.1 point swing) - Ferrin run on the fake FG. As fun as this was, we would give up most of the win probability gains over the next three plays. This was only really impactful if Ferrin would have missed the longer FG.
• 63.2%->68.7% (5.5 point swing) - Lassiter conversion on 4th and 2. I'm still not sure if he actually got this. It was definitely a big play, keeping the UCF offense off the field and setting up the fake and then real FG.
• 67.9%->72.6% (4.7 point swing) - Unsportsmanlike penalty on UCF. Definitely a turning point. Might have been a much closer game without this. UCF likely scores 7 and we likely don't have time for the Roberts score. Huge potential swing.