After week 9 results, I ran 1,000,000 more simulations of the rest of the regular season using win probabilities from the Massey Ratings website. BYU has a better chance than anyone to make the CCG:



The matchups table is unsurprising (but exciting) given the odds listed above:


Here's the odds of each team making the CCG given their final record. Cinci's and TTech's losses yesterday hurt them quite a bit even if they win out from here. Utah has effectively no chance of making the CCG haha.


Here are three tables with interesting scenarios. It's still true that Kansas State and Iowa State both winning out until their game is about the worst thing that can happen for our CCG prospects (outside of us losing 3 or more of our remaining games):




Here is each team's odds of finishing the season with different win counts:


There's been some controversy over Big 12 Tiebreaker rule (c), which may or may not allow BYU to win a tiebreaker against Iowa State for 2nd place based on BYU's win over Kansas State depending on how you interpret it. I ran the simulations both ways, and the results are nearly identical, even in the interesting scenarios table. So even though we don't have official word on which interpretation of the rule is correct, it is very unlikely to matter.