Of course there could be bid thieves in conference tournaments which would put that in jeopardy. I think there are 31 conferences so 31 auto bids. Right now there are 10 conference leaders ahead of BYU, meaning that with no bid thieves it would project that 21 teams behind BYU are going to get auto bids. so want to be top 43. But even then its not a guarantee. Last year #27 rpi south alabama got hosed and left out, while some mid-50s pac12 teams AZ and Colorado got in. BYU for now still has a top 10 overall SOS (based off Masseys ratings) which helps their resume. Of course, their schedule would mathematically have to be difficult for them to be top 40 RPI while having a near-.500 record.

Next game at TT on Friday is huge (TT at 30 in RPI), because a win there should bump BYU up several spots into a position of better safety. A tie would also be good enough, but a loss or bad loss could bump just over to the wrong side of the bubble. Key also: BYU is 2 games above .500, so a win or tie at TT guarantees that BYU will finish above .500 and would at least maintain eligibility for at-large selection. Rule is no team can be selected for an at-large bid unless their record is better than .500.

If BYU sneaks in as one of the last teams in, could be a first round game in Logan against USU. USU is currently 20 in RPI. But UVU also leads the WAC standings, so if UVU gets in with the WAC auto bid (have to win their conference tournament) then perhaps they send UVU up to USU for the first round and maybe send BYU to Pepperdine or Santa Clara?

If BYU beats TT and goes on a run and wins two or more games in Big 12 tourney, then perhaps BYU could even jump up into the top 32 so BYU would get one first round home game.

On the other hand, if BYU ends the season by losing to TT and then in first round of big 12 tournament then BYU is officially eliminated because they have a .500 record. Although I think for the Big 12 tournament they'll do shootouts. And a shootout game will count in the overall season record as a tie. So a TT loss followed by a big 12 first round shootout loss wouldn't officially eliminate them.