We want Iowa St. to win out. Simplest 

Iowa St. wins out.

BYU is in with 1 loss no matter what else happens (AMENDMENT: Technically if UCF wins out-5 in a row and KState loses 3 more games then we are out- I'm not sure what the odds of this happening are but I imagine it is pretty low)

KState wins out

We need Colorado AND Iowa St to lose again or we are out 

Colorado wins out

We need K State to lose 1 (We lose all scenarios if KState also wins out)

Texas Tech wins out

Just need Cincy to lose a game and we are in

Cincy wins out

Need KState to beat Iowa St, if not then we need Iowa St to lose another and TTech to lose a game. 

Based of this guy's work

mred's Big 12 FB Standings Generator (notnothing.net)