Biggest change: In Coach KY's recent public comments, he referred to Dawson Baker "rust?" Rather, Baker likes to put ball on the floor and
get to the rim. My reading between KY lines which could be wrong, Coach wants him to bypass the dribble drive for the pass & cut, and reduce his turnover rate to single digits like Saunders and Knell have learned to do so well. Baker's conditioning looks very good so I'm not buying the rust comment. Dawson is a smart guy, maybe he can figure it out.

Regarding the summary below, I'm most certain that some things written herein will be proven wrong:

1. Egor Demin--He'll be 19 years old by the time March Madness gets underway, by which time he is expected to be a ready lottery pick. Consensus that he is playing a level higher in practices. Ball handling and passing is particularly high level. However, talented as he is, he has two areas to improve to keep his efficiency up and help BYU to win games: 1) raising arc shooting percentage, and 2) lowering turnover rate. Spectacular passes are beautiful when they work and Egor will deliver some, but low risk passes win games. Minutes-65%

2. Hall--The clear leader on a surprisingly strong team last season, expect more skill enhancements for 2025 as he is pushed by exceptional freshmen Elijah Crawford and Egor. Minutes-65%

3. Richie Saunders--We've been underrating Richie for too long. His exceptional motor has never been in question and his #27 finish in offensive rating last season was paced by his 64% 2pt FG percentage and wonderfully low turnover rate. While Richie is the perfect 6th man, his all around game is advancing to a compelling starter role. Minutes-60%

4. Keba Keita--Fairly new to the game makes him a late bloomer with a steep improvement curve. No one wants to guard him in practice but Fouss does it, making them both better. Keba cut his turnover rate in half year over year which is a major difference maker. Minutes-52%

5. Kanon Catchings-- Moving up to 5 from 8. A multitalented potential first round draft pick who could work his way into the starting lineup, Catchings is a near certain major minutes player. With multigenerational pros among his nurturing family, would expect he is one who knows the right way to play. How well a youngster shoots under the bright lights is always a question. What BYU doesn't have is a proven second rebounder to share the load with their able centers. The plan is that Mag and/or Catchings can rebound at a high level. Minutes-50%

6. Mawot Mag--Close call between Mag and Catchings in the 5th starter spot, though not sure either fully compensates for the loss of Noah Waterman. Mag has never posted good offensive numbers and his turnover rate has been too high every year. But his defensive acumen is very highly regarded and obviously that accounts for half the game. Minutes-45%

7. Trevin Knell--Until someone overtakes the shot doctor, we're assuming Knell's high percentage shooting, outstanding leadership, and defensive hustle should keep him in the mix. Knell seems undervalued by Cougar Nation. But KY likes brains and analytics, and Knell can think and has been top 75 in Nation for offensive efficiency in 2021 and 2024. His extremely low turnover rate and adequacy on defense is sometimes overlooked. If he shoots 40%+ from the arc he plays. Minutes-45%

8. Fousseyni Traore--We have been touting Fouss as the emerging starting center since before his freshman year began and projected him as the starter before Harward and Baxter went down with injuries in 2022. He remains a very important piece but at this point it looks like KY has recruited a bigger better rim runner in Keita. Fouss could raise his game by lowering his too high turnover rate, improving his pick and roll defense, and yet challenge Keba for excellence. Minutes-40%.

9. Dawson Baker--Slotting Dawson down to the edge of the rotation for now doesn't mean he will stay here. In Coach KY's recent public comments, he was perhaps making excuses for Dawson citing "rust?" Rather, Baker likes to put ball on the floor and get to the rim. Reading between KY lines, Coach wants him to pass & cut, and reduce his turnover rate to single digits like Saunders and Knell have done so well. Baker is probably in good condition. Dawson is a smart guy, so he should be able to figure out what Coach wants and adapt. Coach wants Dawson to substitute passing and cutting for some of his dribbling and driving to the rim. Minutes-40% (See note at bottom)

10. Mihailo Boskovic--Fills the need for a big body banger and a proven rebounder at PF. While any player on the roster has the potential to surprise to the upside, looks like Bosko has to beat out either Mag or Catchings to log major minutes. In the absence of injuries among the rotation bigs, it's difficult to project him into major minutes. Boskovic is rebounding insurance. He probably plays some low post also when Keba or Fouss need relief, but he doesn't like it there. Minutes-35%

11. Elijah Crawford--Would be BYU's most prized recruit in most years past. He is such a natural at PG, but may need a year or two to obtain the goods to lead his older teammates. Nevertheless, he is sure to step up in moments and when his shot is falling, he could become a significant upside surprise. Minutes-< 30%

12. Brody Kozlowski--Signed this legit prospect after all. Koz HS stats tell us he can shoot well and likes rebounding. He also enjoyed superior mentoring from accomplished family ballers. Minutes-<30%

13. Trey Stewart-- We love him as much as any player on the roster. He plays with passion. His intelligence, wisdom, and inspiration should add to team chemistry. We don't know if he has improved enough to earn a significant role.

14. Max Tripplet--Before Bosko, Tripp was best prospect to fill what some believe is BYU's biggest hole, i.e. the need for a 3rd center should Keba or Fouss be injured or get in foul trouble.

15. Tripple--See Max Tripplet

16. McGregor--He'll have a few fun moments and add to team unity on and off the court.

Like last season, I believe this team is underrated. I recognize it's still good to be ranked at #9 in the Big 12. However, don't be surprised if one or more players are not cleared to play for early games.

My baseline at this point is top 5 in the Big 12.

Go Cougs!

Note on Baker bullet:

If we're comparing the specific skills of passing and cutting versus dribbling and getting to the rim, there are strong arguments for prioritizing passing and cutting:

Passing and cutting are fundamental to creating an efficient offense: Teams that emphasize ball movement and player movement tend to generate higher-quality shots and force defenses to constantly adjust, creating openings for easy baskets. Good passers can set up teammates for open looks, leading to higher shooting percentages for the team overall. Effective cutters put pressure on the defense even without the ball, creating space and opportunities for teammates.

Strong passers and cutters can disrupt defenses more effectively, force man-to-man defenses to communicate and rotate constantly, increase the chances of defensive breakdowns, and create mismatches and open shots through well-timed cuts and passes.

Emphasizing passing and cutting often leads to better team chemistry and cohesion. More players are involved in the offense, which can boost morale and engagement, and reduce reliance on individual talent, making the team harder to scout and defend.

Players who excel at passing and cutting tend to fit well into various offensive systems, to remain effective even when their shooting is off, and to contribute positively without dominating ball possession. While the ability to dribble and get to the rim is valuable, it can sometimes lead to over-reliance on individuals, and stagnate offense. Coach Young doesn't want Baker's Irvine game.

That said, the ideal scenario is to have players who can do both. The ability to threaten the defense with dribble penetration can open up passing lanes and create cutting opportunities. Conversely, good passing and cutting can create space for drives to the rim. Ultimately, in college basketball, the emphasis on team play and offensive efficiency often favors players who excel at passing and cutting.

BYU has other guys who can get to the rim. While Baker is not an NBA level dribble driver, Demin is. Baker doesn't have to give it up entirely. If the lane is wide open, take it. But Dawson's turnover rate has to be cut in half to become a major force this season.