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Sep 30, 2024
12:35:28pm
MaximusMeridius Intervention Needed
"Conservative Playcalling" - Here's a breakdown of the plays

First off, can we all agree that it's idiotic to just look at 1st half yards or points compared to 2nd half yards/points, then immediately say the decrease is due to less aggressive play calling? You could go 100% in on aggressive play calls, with deep routes, hail marys, launching it down field every play and move zero yards because it gets defended. the PLAY CALL is still aggressive, even though the points/yardage is minimal. Or you could run the ball for 2-3 yards and dink and dunk pass down the field getting first downs and ultimately scoring...conservative play calls, but still score. So lets stop pointing exclusively to points/yards as proof that play calling got less aggressive.

If I had more time I'd actually rewatch the entire game and make notes about the specific play calls. I dont, but I will go through and note the pass vs run plays along with any other relevant notes for every drive:

  • DRIVE #1: 4 Pass plays (all completions), 3 run plays (alternated pass/run every other play). 75 yards drive, TD.
  • DRIVE #2: 4 run plays. 20 yards, TD.
  • DRIVE #3: 3 pass plays (1 completion), 4 run plays. 69 yards, TD.
  • DRIVE #4: 5 pass plays (4 completions), 5 run plays. 85 yards, TD.
  • DRIVE #5: 2 pass plays (1 completion), 1 run play. 8 yards. 3 & out / Punt.
  • DRIVE #6: 4 pass plays (3 completions), 3 run plays. 39 yards. FG.

END OF 1ST HALF. Result: 18 pass plays, 20 run plays.

  • DRIVE #7: 7 pass plays (3 completions), 4 run plays, 1 fake punt (not included in run plays). 46 yards. FG.
  • DRIVE #8: 2 pass plays, 1 run play. 2 yards. Interception.
  • DRIVE #9: 2 pass plays, 3 run plays. 18 yards. Missed FG attempt.
  • DRIVE #10: 2 pass plays (0 completions), 1 run play. -4 yards. 3 & out / Punt.
  • DRIVE #11: 1 pass play (0 completions), 2 run plays. 8 yards. Interception.
  • DRIVE #12: 0 pass plays, 3 run plays. 13 yards, but a 15 yard penalty. 3 & out / Punt.
  • 2 kneel downs to end the game - not counting these as run plays.

END OF 2ND HALF: Result: 14 pass plays, 14 run plays (plus 1 fake punt).

So here's my question for you: did the play calling get less aggressive or did player execution get worse in the second half (due to baylors defense getting better, OL injuries, etc)? As I previously noted, you can call aggressive plays but if guys aren't open or executing well, you aren't going to go anywhere.

MY TAKEAWAYS:

Baylor's defense in the first quarter was utterly horrible. Awful tackling, missed assignments everywhere, etc.  They fixed their issues as the game went on and their defense looked solid in the 2nd half...that plays a major role in a less effective offense (has nothing to do with offensive play calls...guys just weren't getting open anymore).

Out of 12 drives there were only 3 3&outs. 1 in the first half, 2 in the second.  One of them in the second half was due to a 15 yard penalty, which was "bull crap" to use Kalani's words. 2 more drives ended due to interceptions, so ironically if ARod was more conservative and leaned more on the run game, we wouldnt have had those interceptions (not saying thats the right choice though, our run game sucked in the 2nd half).

There were more run plays called in the 1st half than pass plays. In the 2nd half it was a 50/50 split, and that's even with the obvious run situations late in the game where you have to drain clock, so run is really your only option. If you're playing ultra conservative, you run the ball and run and run and run. We didn't do that.

Drive #9 is where some people point, saying ARod was being way too conservative.  Only 1 more run play was called than pass plays in that drive.  Regardless, I think it's defensible to be more conservative and lean more on the run game in that situation, because you're already in FG range and hitting a FG creates a 16 point lead.

I wish I could look up 1st half stats specifically, but I dont know of a site to do that. But I recall looking at the stats at halftime and we were averaging over 5 yards per carry rushing in the first half. Nawahine ended with 2.7 yards per carry and Haunga had 3.0. The run game was awful in the 2nd half. That tells me that the OL injuries were playing a major role in our inability to run the ball, whereas we got 5 yards a pop in the first half.

I don't see how you can justify whining about play calling getting "too conservative" in the 2nd half, especially after looking at the play call breakdown here. On top of that, a fake punt was called on 4th & 11, plus there was at least 1 (maybe 2?) trick plays called to try to manufacture some more offense. That's not "overly conservative".  Play calls were not conservative...the execution was poor.

Case closed.

 

MaximusMeridius
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MaximusMeridius
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