8:28:32am
BYU has now surpassed the preseason expected win total of 4.7. And we did it in 5 games. The chances of going undefeated are no longer rounding to 0. The Utah game is now closer to a 50/50 matchup. UCF has been and remains our toughest projected matchup. We are now favored, or only slight underdogs in all the remaining games. The model will not account for injuries, so have to wait and see how bad the damage was from the Baylor game.
Playoffs are a real possibility, at least based on the model. Our chances went from 11.8% after last week to 23.7% after Baylor. Also nice to see Utah going from the ~30% to 5% after yesterday. Being in the same conference as your rival means that their failure is your success. What a big swing.
BYU Final Record Probabilities
| Record | Week 0 | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 1-11 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2-10 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3-9 | 15% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4-8 | 24% | 20% | 6% | 5% | 0% | 0% |
| 5-7 | 25% | 27% | 16% | 15% | 1% | 0% |
| 6-6 | 17% | 23% | 26% | 26% | 7% | 1% |
| 7-5 | 9% | 12% | 26% | 27% | 19% | 8% |
| 8-4 | 3% | 5% | 16% | 18% | 29% | 21% |
| 9-3 | 1% | 1% | 6% | 7% | 26% | 31% |
| 10-2 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 13% | 25% |
| 11-1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 11% |
| 12-0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| BOWL | 29% | 41% | 76% | 79% | 99% | 100% |
BYU Win Probabilities according to ESPN
| Opponent | Week 0 | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIU | 90% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| SMU | 20% | 21% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| WYO | 60% | 79% | 86% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| KSU | 28% | 32% | 34% | 30% | 100% | 100% | |
| BAY | 34% | 40% | 44% | 40% | 52% | 100% | |
| AZ | 33% | 36% | 53% | 60% | 75% | 67% | -9% |
| OSU | 30% | 32% | 37% | 32% | 43% | 53% | 10% |
| UCF | 23% | 18% | 19% | 17% | 26% | 39% | 13% |
| UT | 24% | 23% | 27% | 26% | 35% | 46% | 10% |
| KS | 27% | 31% | 43% | 49% | 58% | 64% | 6% |
| ASU | 42% | 31% | 35% | 39% | 53% | 55% | 2% |
| HOU | 63% | 81% | 76% | 70% | 85% | 88% | 2% |
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- bythenumbers
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