close enough to their conferences. Seems that New Mexico State and UTEP are really the prime candidates to join either conference because of location. Sam Houston might have interest in leaving CUSA, but all the other schools are just too far away. I don't think the schools in the Sun Belt are an option because they seem to like each other and could be a very good conference if they stick together. Texas State may be a possibility. No one is leaving the MAC or the AAC.

So really, these are the options in FBS: New Mexico State, UTEP, Sam Houston and Texas State. If you throw $10 million at New Mexico State and UTEP, they probably join whichever conference offers them that much. The MWC needs two schools, but I bet they try to convince Hawaii to join as a full member. I think the Pac 12 might swoop in, though, and convince Hawaii to join as a full member because they only have a $3.5 million exit fee from the MWC and probably don't have any exit fees to leave the Big West. Hawaii is also likely much more desireable TV rights-wise than UTEP and New Mexico State because they have been good recently.

It probably goes like this: Hawaii joins as a full member of the Pac 12 (so they have 8 schools) after Pac 12 promises them additional revenue for a few years. MWC adds New Mexico State and UTEP by paying them $10 million to join and paying the CUSA exit fees (which appears to be about $3 million).

Otherwise, if all other schools stay put, Pac 12 and MWC will have to convince some FCS schools to elevate.