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Sep 23, 2024
11:12:17am
HRCougar All-American
Four games in and the preseason rankings effect is still strong, or is it?
If you look at body of work through four games, here are the teams that have a legitimate reason to be ranked ahead of BYU. By the way, I'm not saying BYU is truly a much better team than their current ranking, but it's interesting to note how much preseason bias plays into it (or doesn't) four games in:

Top 25 teams with better resumes than BYU:
--#1 Texas (win at #10 Michigan)
--#5 Tennessee (destroyed #24 NCSt and beat #15 OU on the road)
--#10 Utah (win at #14 OkSt and vs Baylor, being on the road for their big win puts this into the top category)

Top 25 teams with similar resumes:
--#2 Georgia (Win over #14 Clemson and a close win over UK)
--#4 Alabama (win at Wisc who has two mediocre wins but still a good road win)
--#7 Miami (wins at FL and at USF, both mediocre but good road wins)
--#8 Oregon (wins against BSU and at Oregon St but close one at home to Idaho)
--#12 Michigan (win against #11 USC and loss to TX, loss to Texas shouldn't hurt them much but it is a loss)
--#13 USC (win against #13 LSU and a loss at Michigan, loss to Michigan shouldn't hurt them much but it is a loss)
--#19 Illinois (wins against #19 KU and at #22 Neb)

Top 25 teams with worse resumes:
--#3 Ohio State (three wins over nobodies)
--#6 Ole Miss (four wins over nobodies)
--#9 Penn St (Win at WVU but then two nobody wins)
--#11 Mizzou (win against #24 BC but BC probably inflated there since they got a bump beating FSU who sucks)
--#14 LSU (wins against SC and UCLA, but loss to USC)
--#15 Louisville (win vs Ga Tech and two nobodies)
--#16 Notre Dame (win at #20 TA&M but that loss at home to NIU is bad)
--#17 Clemson (two mediocre wins and a loss to UGA, UGA loss shouldn't hurt them much but it is a loss)
--#18 Iowa St (win at #21 Iowa and two other nobodies, Iowa might be a good win but who knows right now)
--#20 Ok St (win against Ark and a loss to Utah, loss to Utah shouldn't hurt them much but it is a loss)
--#21 Oklahoma (loss to #6 Tenn and three wins against nobodies, loss to Tenn shouldn't hurt them much but it is a loss)

Given all this I think the groupings are as follows:

Group 1 - better resumes and clearly ahead of BYU:
--Texas
--Tennessee
--Utah

Group 2 - similar resumes but eye test justifies them being in front:
--Georgia
--Alabama

Group 3 - worse resumes but eye test justifies them being in front:
--Ohio St
--Ole Miss

Group 4 - similar or worse resumes but eye test makes it arguable they could be ahead
--Penn St
--Miami
--Oregon
--Michigan
--USC
--Illinois
--Clemson
--Iowa St

Group 5 - worse resumes that should probably be ranked below BYU based purely on resume:
--Mizzou
--LSU
--Louisville

Group 6 - worse resumes that should definitely be ranked below BYU based purely on resume:
--Notre Dame
--Ok St
--Oklahoma

As such, without too much preseason bias I think BYU should be anywhere from #8 to #16 with anything up to #19 being somewhat reasonable. They're probably about three spots too low right now. I'm not saying BYU is the #8 team in the country! But based on resume alone I think an argument could be made. It looks like preseason bias is definitely in play for Notre Dame, Ok St, and Oklahoma and likely for Mizzou, LSU, and Louisville.
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Sep 23, 2024 at 11:12:17am
Message modified by HRCougar on Sep 23, 2024 at 11:13:18am
HRCougar
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