Here is the impact of last night's games on BYU. Beating SMU was huge for our bowl chances — a 35% increase. There may not be another game as pivotal to our bowl chances as that one, unless we really depend on that last game against Houston to make it. Our potential win distribution looks a lot better with a 25% chance of going 8-4 or better. Note that was about our chance of making a bowl at the beginning of the season.

Looking at individual games, the big movers were Arizona and Kansas. We are now actually favored to beat AZ. The model really did not like their performances last night. Chances of beating Utah keep creeping up. Chances of beating UCF are basically flat — that is still our toughest remaining game.

Winning next week does almost nothing to our projected wins, all else equal. But losing will drop our bowl chances to 53% and likely lower after the model reassesses BYU's strength and updates all the future win probabilities.

Note: my bowl probability currently doesn't match ESPN. They may have updated their win probabilities but not their simulation model that produces the bowl likelihood. I believe the number I'm posting below is the right one.

BYU Final Record Probabilities

BYU Win Probabilities according to ESPN