With the out of conference essentially over (sorry FAMU), here's a look ahead to BYU's conference games. Most of the BYU media just say "aw this conference schedule is brutal, look how many good teams there are" without actually breaking down matchups and talking about what BYU needs to do to get to the tournament. I want to do that here.

I break them down into three groups to simplify it.

THE RAMP UP
12/31 through 1/21 Average NET ranking:58.5 (Current NET rankings)
vs ASU (51)
@Houston (7)
vs Texas Tech (26)
@TCU (89)
vs OSU (103)
@Utah (59)
@CU (75)

This first 1/3 is shaping up to be the easiest 1/3 of conference play. We play two good teams at home (ASU, Tech), and three bad teams away (TCU, Utah, CU). Then throw in a difficult away Houston game and a home game against one of the worst teams in the B12. If BYU wants to be a tournament team, they need to build some momentum in this section. I'm talking 6-1 or 5-2. What would that look like? Win all the home games and two of the away games. The Marriot center is a huge advantage, and we need to defend home court, plus beat up on some of these weaker away games. It does not bode well if BYU goes this first stretch at 4-3 or even 3-4.

DIFFICULT HOME GAMES
1/25-2/18 Average NET ranking:43
vs Cincinnati (30)
vs Baylor (18)
@UCF (86)
vs Arizona (33)
@Cincinnati (30)
@WVU (28)
vs KSU (105)
vs Kansas (19)

This second (2/3) is full of difficult home games. The good news is, they have to come to us. We've got Cincy, Baylor, Arizona, and Kansas all in the Marriot center. We've also got the most difficult road trip in our schedule in Cincy and WVU. Last, there's KSU in the Marriot center, which we should win and an away gain against UCF. If you lump all the difficult games together (all the games minus KSU and UCF), I think BYU needs to go 3-3 in these games. So, win 3 at home, and you're fine on the road. But drop a game at home, and now you need to pick one up on the road against Cincy or WVU. (goal is 3-3 in the hard games) Then split or even win out the easy games (KSU and UCF). They probably need to go 4-4 or 5-3 in this section.

HOLD SERVE AT HOME
2/22-3/8 Average NET ranking: 35
@Arizona (33)
@ASU (51)
vs WVU (28)
@ISU (5)
vs Utah (59)

This last third is the toughest as you've got 3 away games against good teams. Defend the Marriot center in this section, and BYU will be fine. So 2-3 or maybe even 3-2.

Tallying up all the worst possible records, I'd say BYU needs to go 11-9 to get into the tournament. That's 5-2 in the first section, 4-4 in the next third, and 2-3 to end the season. One thing to remember, the B12 is not considered the best conference in CBB this year. So being 9th in B12 play may not get you a spot in the tournament. I'd say BYU needs to stay above .500 to get into the tournament.

Can they do it? This first 1/3 of conference play should let us know. If they drop a lot of games early, they're going to have a tough time getting back into the tournament.