I'll go back to 2014 (the last 10 classes we've signed) and list all of our 4 star recruits and how they panned out. I listed them if they were ranked 4* by either 247, ESPN, or Rivals (by the way, ESPN has the least reliable star ratings)

2014:
Fred Warner- BYU legend
Nick Kurtz- solid player that had over 1,100 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns over 2 seasons
Isaiah Nacu- never played

2015:
Kieffer Longson- career backup


2016:
Troy Warner- solid starter that played for 5 years. Injuries limited his ceiling.
Jonah Trinnaman- decent receiver but not great. 4th option behind guys like Kurtz, Hifo, and Bushman
Handsome Tanielu- solid starter on the d-line
Max Tooley- huge contributor that was a leader on the defense


2017:
Chaz Ah You- had some shining moments, but injuries wrecked him
Langi Tuifua- never even got to show what he could do after a nasty neck injury


2018:
Gunner Romney- solid starter for us that put up almost 2,000 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns

2019:
Jacob Conover- has transferred to multiple schools and never panned out

2021:
Raider Damuni- solid player for us that has started as a red shirt sophomore and has a bright future
Logan Fano- never played a snap for us, transferred to Utah

2022:
Ice Moa- never quite panned out and transferred
Cody Hagen- played in several games as a true freshman returned missionary
Dom Mckenzie- true freshman this year, but didn't get much playing time in a stacked WR room

2023:
Siale Esera- played a bunch as a true freshman and showed really well. Got injured at the end of the season, spent this year rehabbing.
Jackson Bowers- never panned out, transferred.
LJ Martin- 2 year starter and stud for us.

2024:
Faletau Satuala- played a bunch as a true freshman
Ryner Swanson- played a bunch as a true freshman
Devoux Tuataga- on his mission

Out of 23 guys in the last 10 years that were ranked as 4 star recruits, we really on had 7 that didn't pan out, which is a 30% fail rate. The rest had starter reps and at least contributed and helped out in significant ways. Several turned into team captains. It's not as bad as some claim. We aren't cursed.