Taking on highly talented freshman like BYU is now doing (as opposed to our prior strategy of bringing in players that stay 3-4-5 years) means that we are typically not going to gel as effectively as a team in the months of November and December. That is the price you have to pay for filling a roster with a lot of very high ceiling players on a team who are playing together for the first time. The preseason is basically a warmup for league play and the first bit of league play is basically a warmup to qualify for a good seed and make a run in the conference and NCAA tournaments. Obviously the games all still count, but the objective of the early games is on improvement as opposed to winning big now. You give up a little early in the season, particularly in terms of margin of victory, when you play to develop players over the season for an NCAA run and the NBA draft.
We will see fewer games where we are killing teams by 30-50 points in the Fall, but our team has a higher ceiling to succeed in B12 play and into March as long as the pieces come together and we see improvement throughout the year. These teams won't have as much time in the offseason to work together and so it's important to have a little more patience as fans in the Fall and recognize that some of these teams may not come together in time and that's okay.
The best known coach to use this model is Calipari and BYU's rosters with multiple potential draft picks are already starting to look like his rosters. While Calipari has had some flat-out dominant teams, many of his teams with multiple draft picks were just okay through the season before really shining in March and some never fully got it together. Check out Calipari's team's at Kentucky over his 15 year tenure:
Calipari's first year (2009-10) was a dominant season where he went to the elite 8 with future draft picks John Wall (#1 overall), Demarcus Cousins (#5 overall), Eric Bledsoe (#8 overall), and Patrick Patterson (#14 overall). This team was obviously stacked with young talent and was nearly flawless losing only 2 games during the season earning a #1 seed, but losing to #2 seed WVU in the elite 8.
Calipari's team in 2010-11 was a complete re-load and the team lost 8 regular season games (7 to unranked teams). This team still made it to the Elite 8 in March as a #4 seed where they lost by 1 point to UConn, who would win it all. Interestingly, the game was a rematch as Calipari's team had lost to by 17 points at home to UConn in November. It was UConn's closest margin of victory in the tournament. This Calipari's team boasted the #8 overall pick Brandon Knight, #35 pick Harrelson, along with Terrance Jones who would actually stay another year before getting picked up in the first round the following season.
Calipari won it all in a dominant 2011-12 season going nearly flawless at 38-2 with a roster that looked very different from the prior year, other than Jones. The team boasted Anthony Davis (#1 overall pick), Jones (#18 overall pick), and Teague (#29 pick).
Calipari missed the NCAAs in 2012-13 just one year after winning it all and got bounced in the first round of the NIT finishing the season at 21-12. This team still had future pros Nerlens Noel (#6 overall pick) and Archie Goodwin (#29 overall pick). This shows that even with AMAZING talent, you don't hit a home run every year, in part because of all the development and "gelling" that needs to happen quickly. Sometimes one year just isn't enough to get those pieces to play well together.
Calipari's 2013-14 team lost in the championship game to a familiar foe (UConn) by only six points. The team lost 10 regular season games with the majority of the losses to unranked teams and most of their conference games were decided by single digits. They went to the championship game as an 8 seed in the NCAAs. This team was lead by talented players Julius Randle (7th overall pick) and James Young (#17 overall).
Calipari's 2014-15 team had a perfect regular season earning a #1 seed and his second final four in a row. This team was lead by the first overall pick Karl-Anthony Towns, Trey Lyles (#12 overall) and Andrew Harrison (44th).
Calipari's 2015-16 team took a step back losing 8 games during the season and getting bounced in the second round of the NCAA's as a #4 seed. This team was headlined by Jamal Murray (#7 overall) and Tyler Ulis (#34 overall).
Calipari's 2016-17 squad had a solid season losing only 5 games and earning a #2 seed where they went to another Elite 8. Leaders on the team included De'Aaron Fox (5th overall pick), Malik Monk (#11 overall pick), and Bam Adebayo (#14 overall pick).
Calipari's 2017-18 team lost ten regular season games (7 to unranked teams) and landed a #5 seed for the NCAA tournament where they lost in the sweet sixteen. This team had Kevin Knox II (#9 pick), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (#11 pick), and PJ Washington (who stayed another year landing as the #12 pick), and Wenyan Garbriel (undrafted, but played 5 years in the league).
Calipari's 2018-19 team lost six regular season games earning a #2 seed and Calipari's seventh trip to the elite 8 with Kentucky in ten years. Key players were PJ Washington (#12 pick), and Tyler Herro (#13th pick).
Calipari's 2019-20 team was 25-6 before the post-season was cancelled thanks to Covid. My best guess is this would have been another elite 8 team. Tyrese Maxey (#21 overall), Immanuel Quickley (#25), Nick Richards (#42 overall).
Calipari's 2020-21 team posted his first losing season going 9-16. This team was the first without multiple first-round picks under Calipari's tenure, but still boasted Brandon Boston (#51) and Oliveir Sarr who went undrafted, but made rosters in the NBA.
Calipari's 2021-22 squad went 26-7 earning a #2 seed, but lost in the first round. Team leaders included Tyty Washington (#29 overall pick) and Oscar Tshiebwe (who returned the next season and ended up the #44 pick).
Calipari's 2022-23 team lost 11 games, including 9 to unranked teams, and earned a #6 seed and won one NCAA tournament game. Cason Wallace (#10 overall), Oscar Tshiebwe (#44 pick), Anton Reeves (returned for the next year before being drafted at #47).
In Calipari's final season in Kentucky (2023-24) his team lost 9 games including 7 to unranked teams. They earned a #3 seed, but surprisingly lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament. This team boasted Reed Sheppard (#3 overall pick), Rob Dillingham (#8 overall), and Anton Reeves (#47 overall pick).
So over fifteen seasons at Kentucky where nearly every team had at least three future NBA draft picks, Calipari's teams still commonly lost a decent number of games during the season and then often went on to have tremendous success in post season play (1 NC, 3 final fours, 7 elite 8's, 8 sweet 16s). While there were a few head-scratchers, particularly late in Calipari's tenure, I think his body of work shows that the one and done model where you feature talented freshman can work well, but requires some patience during the season.