A good friend of mine who played college ball (he's probably reading this and laughing right now) hit me last night and asked if I thought there was anyway Egor would stay for another year. "We could make a REAL RUN..." He's not wrong. If he DOES stay for another year - and selfishly I'd really like him to - the hype around next year's team will be the highest EVER.

Here's my thinking.

If Egor falls outside of a lottery pick (assume he's still first round pick, hard to see him NOT being a first rounder), I think there's a CHANCE he comes back, albeit still a small one.

He's still very young and another year of Big 12 prep could have a really good impact on his development. I could also make the case that having AJ / Staton on the team next year could really flatter Egor's stats even MORE, making his overall draft stock even MORE attractive next year.

If he's a lottery pick, he's gone.

The other side of this of course, is if he DOES stay for a second year it's presumably b/c his draft stock has fallen a bit. And there could be questions on WHY a guy who was talked about as a top 5/10 pick all year slipped.

Was it BYU's fault (the coaching, the system, whatever) --> makes BYU a less attractive destination --> negative feedback loop on BYU's system / coaching vs. expectations --> does it make it harder to bring in big recruits, etc.

Obviously AJ, Staton, Burgess + KY's NBA creds soften that criticism but it's a risk on the margin. Not something I worry about all that much, to be honest.

Other thoughts on his likelihood to stay?

Another post for another day, but while I love Catchings upside, I think he would be better served NOT declaring for the draft at the end of the season.