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Dec 3, 2024
11:47:09pm
TigerTrack Redshirt Freshman
The committee isn't consistent now, and has never been (proof)
The only consistency with the committee is them elevating big brands for TV ratings. Here are some historical inconsistencies in their "logic":

1. Head-to-head vs overall record
- Ranking BYU below the SMU team they beat back when both teams had one loss.
- 2021 Mich St ranked behind Michigan the week after a close loss to Purdue, despite having the same record and the head-to-head.
- 2017 tOSU ranked over Wisconsin because of head-to-head, even though Wisconsin had better record.
- 2015 MSU over tOSU despite a weaker resume due to head-to-head

2. Conference championships
- The committee straight up just decides who to penalize and who to not penalize for conference championships.
- Now, it's the conference championship runner-ups who will get left out. They'll put another SEC team in over SMU for sure.
- 2017 Wisconsin not making the CFP after their only loss in the B1G championship against tOSU, allowing 2017 Bama to slip in after not participating in a championship game.
- 2016 tOSU didn't play on CCG but still made it and got boatraced by Clemson.
- Alabama and Georgia, multiple times, will make the CFP without a CCG appearance.
- 2014 Okla St and TCU left out because Big 12 didn't have a CCG. This has never been an issue for Notre Dame.

3. "Game Control" vs strength of schedule
- When a big brand like Alabama has a weak schedule (like in 2017), they'll claim they dominated weaker opponents.
- When that brand has more losses (like Alabama this year), then they'll claim they have a better strength of schedule than a Miami or BYU.
- Game control has been a weakness for Miami, BYU, Bama, and Georgia. But only two of those teams are penalized for it.
-2014 undefeated FSU penalized and ranked behind schools with a loss due to poor game control
- 2021 Cincinnati was said to have poor game control and was ranked 4th behind teams w/ a loss. Shouldn't a loss be the worst kind of game control?

4. Loss Forgiveness
- When BYU and Miami lose to unranked opponents, then the committee drops them over 5 spots.
- When Ohio St and Alabama lose to unranked opponents, the committee drops them <5 and keeps them in playoff contention.
- Undefeated FSU was left out last year for a one-loss Alabama team.
-2021 Alabama at number 1 over undefeated Cincinnati and Michigan, despite having a loss to unranked A&M.

5. Metrics vs the "eye test"
- 2018 UCF went undefeated but was ranked behind one and two-loss teams because the committee said they didn't "look" like a top team.
- Metrics are applied when they help the big brands (like Alabama and Georgia this year) but the eye test is applied when metrics favor other teams.

6. Bias against G5 (and also the Big 12/ACC)
- 2020 Cincinnati went undefeated but was kept out because of "strength of schedule"
- 2015 Houston ranked below 15th the entire season, finished 13-1 with a NY6 win over FSU.
- 2017/2018 UCF
- 2020 Coastal/BYU

7. Late season shifts
- 2014 TCU drops from 3 to 6 in the final week, allowing the committee to slide Ohio St in.
- 2022 TCU drops to 3 after a CCG loss
- Aforementioned 2017 Wisconsin dropping out from close CCG loss, while 2021 Georgia was given a pass after losing CCG by 17.

It's clear as ever that the CFP Committee's job is to get the most profitable brands in the playoff at the expense of other schools. This may goose profits in the short-term, but will surely lead to lawsuits and/or apathy in the long-term. For example, the 2020 Bama/ND CFP final had record-low viewership, and was a major catalyst for the recent 12-team playoff changes.
TigerTrack
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TigerTrack
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Sep 3, 2023
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Dec 4, 2024
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