From my perspective, here's what we need to happen re: conference championships to have our best shot at the CFP. Even if this happens, we'd be a looooong shot, but I think we'd merit consideration:

• Oregon beats Penn State for B10 title
  • probably doesn't matter either way; I think they're both CFP locks
• Texas beats Georgia for SEC title
  • probably doesn't matter either way; I think they're both CFP locks
• SMU beats Clemson for ACC title
  • I think SMU is a lock either way, but Clemson is out with a loss. So if Clemson wins, the ACC gets 2 spots, and all hope for 2 Big 12 selections dries up. Plus, SMU winning builds our resume.
• Iowa State beats ASU for Big 12 title
  • I think ASU is out with a loss, but Iowa State is still under consideration (but above BYU) with a loss. So we need ISU to win.
• UNLV beats Boise St for MWC title
  • Boise St gets the #4 spot with a win, knocking the B12 winner into the 5-12 melee, which greatly decreases the chance of a 2nd Big 12 selection.
• Army v Tulane is irrelevant since either UNLV or Boise St would be ranked higher.

If that happens, here's how I see the CFP rankings shaking out, along with my reasoning:

1. Oregon
   • top 4 conference champ
2. Texas
   • top 4 conference champ
3. SMU
   • top 4 conference champ
4. Iowa State
   • top 4 conference champ
     
     
5. Notre Dame
   • 11-1; good win over Texas A&M; solid wins over Louisville, Navy, Army; really bad loss to NIU;
     • ND is over-rated, but they have best record after Oregon, tied with Texas, SMU, and Indiana. And they have the brand name.
6. Ohio State
   • 10-2; great wins over Penn St, Indiana; respectable losses to Oregon, Michigan
     • A close loss to your rival (who happens to be the defending national champ) is respectable.
7. Penn State
   • 10-2; B10 runner-up; good win over Illinois; respectable losses to Oregon, Ohio State
8. Georgia
   • 9-3; SEC runner-up; great wins over Texas, Tennessee; good win over Clemson; respectable losses to Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss
9. Tennessee
   • 10-2; good win over Alabama; respectable loss to Georgia; bad loss to Arkansas
     • Tennessee is over-rated here, but they're the #3 SEC team, and SEC bias.
10. Indiana
    • 11-1; solid win over Michigan; respectable loss to Ohio State 
      • Also overrated, but they've beat their whole schedule minus tOSU and are tied for 2nd best record with Texas, SMU, and Notre Dame.
11. ????
12. UNLV
    • highest ranked G5 conference champ

Notre Dame, Tennessee, and Indiana are, to me, the only three questionable inclusions here. But given the CFP committee's track record, I think they're locks since they can't lose any more games.

So that leaves only 1 spot, #11 on the road vs Ohio State, for the following teams to fight over (arranged alphabetically by conference):

ACC

• Clemson
  • 9-4; ACC runner-up; best wins are Pitt (solid-ish), NC State (fine), Va Tech (fine); respectable losses to Georgia, SMU, South Carolina, Louisville
•  Miami
  • 10-2; solid wins over Louisville, Duke; respectable loss to Syracuse; respectable-ish loss to Ga Tech 

B10

• N/A
  • Illinois isn't quite good enough to be seriously considered to get the B10 a fifth slot.

Big 12

• Arizona State
  • 10-3; B12 runner-up; good win over BYU; solid win over Kansas St; respectable loss to Iowa St.; respectable-ish loss to Texas Tech; bad loss to Cincy
•  BYU
  • 10-2; great win over SMU; solid wins over Kansas State, Baylor; respectable loss to ASU; bad loss to Kansas
• Colorado
  • 9-3; solid wins over Baylor, Texas Tech; respectable loss to Kansas St; bad losses to Nebraska, Kansas; Heisman hopeful

G5

• Boise State
  • 11-2; MWC runner-up; solid (maybe good) win over UNLV; respectable losses to Oregan, UNLV; Heisman hopeful
    • They don't really have a shot outside of auto-qualifying

SEC

• Alabama
  • 9-3; great win over Georgia; good win over South Carolina; solid wins over LSU, Mizzou; respectable loss to Tennessee; bad losses to Vandy, Oklahoma
• Ole Miss
  • 9-3; great win over Georgia; good win over South Carolina; respectable loss to LSU; respectable-ish loss to Florida; bad loss to Kentucky
• South Carolina
  • 9-3, good win over Clemson; solid win over A&M; respectable losses to Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU

~~~

Given this scenario, and based only on resume, these are the only real contenders for that final spot (alphabetically):

• Alabama
• BYU
• Miami
• Ole Miss

Bama and Ole Miss have inarguably the worst losses of that group, but also arguably the best wins over Georgia and SC.

Miami's schedule is mostly meh, but they don't have any bad losses.

BYU has arguably the best win over SMU, and our losses are more respectable than Bama's/Ole Miss'. 

On paper, I'd say any of those 4 are worthy. That said, SEC bias will give it to Bama or Ole Miss, and I'd say it's a coin toss as to which.