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Nov 27, 2024
3:42:37pm
TJ06 Walk-on
BYU Schedule Strength and brand name bias

Here's something that shows BYU's actual schedule and results with a list of teams that are one above or one below the current Connelly ranking for the team BYU actually played.

Connelly Actual  Pts  Opp Points One Up One Down
FCS S Illinois                  41                  13 FCS FCS
13 @SMU                  18                  15 TX A&M S Carolina
119 @Wyoming                  34                  14 Purdue FAU
16 K State                  38                    9 Clemson Iowa
36 @Baylor                  34                  28 TCU JMU
79 Arizona                  41                  19 Ok St USF
78 Ok St                  38                  35 Ohio Arizona
54 @UCF                  37                  24 Syracuse Nebraska
52 @Utah                  22                  21 Vandy Syracuse
41 Kansas                  13                  17 Memphis Illinois
48 @ASU                  23                  28 Pitt Texas St.
  Houston        


For Baylor, Arizona, and Okie St, where the surrounding teams are either also in the BIGXII or are in G5 conferences, consider that Minnesota is 39th and Virginia is 81st in these rankings, even giving the benefit of going DOWN the list.

In Connelly's rankings, a win at SMU is just about the same as a win at TX A&M or South Carolina. A win against K State 38-9 is about the same as beating Clemson or Iowa by the same score. Losing to ASU and Kansas would be like losing close ones vs. Illinois and Pitt. And beating Utah would be equivalent to winning at Vandy or Syracuse. Also - Purdue = Wyoming!

So far BYU's schedule with actual names replaced by nearest neighbors is essentially equivalent to the following using Connelly rankings: FCS, @TX A&M, @Purdue, Clemson/Iowa, Minnesota, Virginia, @Virginia, @Syracuse/Nebraska, @Vandy, Illinois, @Pitt. 

If some of the actual names on BYU's schedule were replaced with their Big 10/SEC/ACC (or said another way "brand") equivalent, I'm confident the narrative that the CFP Committee is using about BYU (and the BIGXII for that matter) wouldn't be the same.

 

TJ06
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TJ06
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