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Nov 19, 2024
7:20:06pm
YOHONOMOTO Intervention Needed
Pretty good ESPN write up on how BYU and ASU are getting screwed


There's a good case to be made that the Jayhawks are an incredibly undervalued opponent right now. They opened the year ranked in the top 25, they're just rounding into shape now, and they've been incredibly unlucky, going 1-5 in one-possession games this year. SP+ ranks Kansas as a better loss than Vandy or Georgia Tech. And BYU was still probably the better team in that game, but a special teams miscue cost the Cougars a win.

So what? BYU probably should've lost to SMU or Oklahoma State or Utah, and karma is a real jerk.

Still, let's compare some résumés here.

Team A: 9-1, No. 13 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 12, loss to SP+ No. 84, 3 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams

Team B: 9-1, No. 15 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 46, loss to SP+ No. 5, 0 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams

Team C: 9-1, No. 9 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 22, loss to SP+ No. 55, 2 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams

Team D: 9-1, No. 8 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 13, loss to SP+ No. 42, 3 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams

They're all in roughly the same demographic, sure, but if you're splitting hairs, it's hard not to split them in Team D's direction, right?

Well, of course, Team D is BYU. And, of course, Team A (Notre Dame), B (Boise State) and C (Miami) are all ranked higher.

Way back when the playoff began and the committee was launched, the idea was not to adjust the rankings entirely off the prior week — sending teams that lose tumbling and teams that win inching up as attrition occurs above them — but to view each team's résumé anew each week. But this committee is acting every bit like the AP voters of old — dropping Miami and Georgia and Tennessee and, particularly, BYU, because of recency bias rather than the sum total of the results. Heck, BYU is now behind SMU — a team with the same record the Cougars beat head to head!
YOHONOMOTO
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