After another week and a very disappointing loss to Kansas that I'm still not over, here's where things stand in the B12 CCG race:

TTech has effectively dropped out, and KSU has lost one too many games to have much of a shot. We're basically down to four teams competing for two spots. BYU and Colorado still control our own destinies:

And BYU-Colorado remains the most likely CCG matchup, although BYU's loss has opened the door for more possibilities than last week:

Here is each team's probability of finishing the season with various win counts:


Here's how this week's results affect our CCG chances. Note that our chances go way up to above 98% if we win this weekend, and a loss still doesn't knock us out of the race, although we won't control our destiny anymore if we lose again:


I haven't figured out a good way to graph this one, but BYU can clinch the CCG berth this weekend if we win and either Kansas or Utah wins. BYU and Kansas both winning has a 30.1% chance of happening, and BYU and Utah both winning has a 21.2% chance of happening.

Colorado can clinch the CCG berth this weekend if Colorado, BYU, and Utah all win, which has a 9.3% chance of happening. I don't think anyone else can clinch it this weekend.

Here are the frontrunners' CCG chances in 22 scenarios, some of which overlap:





And here's a breakdown of BYU's CCG chances in those same scenarios based on our final record and who we lost to. (The last two rows of each table are where BYU is 10-2 and lost to a specific remaining opponent, in case that's not clear.) Note that I ran a separate batch of 100,000 simulations for each cell in these tables, which is why sometimes two cells that represent exactly the same situation have slightly different numbers in them.