Besides the scoreboard, there isn't any single metric that will determine wins and losses, but turnover margin and 3rd down conversion rate are among the consistent predictors of a win on the field. There is some element of chance that goes into turnover margin (we dodged a lot of bullets vs. Utah), but less so on 3rd down, as it happens much more consistently and plays a role in so many other factors.

To this point in the season, our offensive opponents who have proven most adept at converting 3rd downs were SMU (ranked #30 on this metric), UCF (#32), AZ (#41) and KSt(#59).
However, KU ranks #6 nationally and has been trending up. Following them we'll have ASU (#20).
I haven't looked into every other game these opponents have played, but I think the SMU/UCF/AZ/Kst quarterbacks all had particularly bad outings against us. We will need to re-create that effect and then some against Jaylen Daniels and the KU offense.

While KU has been converting 55% of 3rd downs lately, our season average is below 30%. That's within a few rounding points of us being only half as successful. That's really hard for oddsmakers to get past. I don't think we're being overlooked. I think we're being scrutinized very carefully, and the stats suggest we've been playing on thin ice for quite some time.

On 3rd down %, we come in at #126th nationally. The only teams below us are FlaIntl (3-6), Northwestern (4-5), Purdue (1-8), Duke (7-3), Houston (4-5), FSU (1-9), MSU (1-8), and Kent St (0-9). We've overcome that with clutch big plays, high defensive turnover rates and an 80+% success rate on 4th down (#5 nationally).

There are reasons to think the undefeated run continues: I think our D is capable of giving Daniels a bad day, our OL and RB health is recovering from earlier in the year, Retzlaff's decision making is trending up, and we're playing at home.

But we don't have as much margin for error as the two season records would suggest.