I do think it's possible we could drop one of the last 3 - not that we SHOULD, but going undefeated is still very tough. In that case, we are still in and control our destiny.

But let's say crap happens and we lose two games.

Here's the teams who we are up against for a spot:

CU: 1 loss and their schedule looks favorable. @KU looks like their only loseable game
KSU: We hold a tie breaker with them, but they play ASU and ISU, who are also in contention for a CCG spot, so they either take themselves out by losing 1 or take out 2 other competitors
ISU: Probably beat Cinci and @Utah, so only potential loss is home vs KSU
WVU: games vs Baylor, UCF, and @ Texas Tech. I could see them winning those games, not sure how a tie breaker works with them
ASU: They play us, @KSU, and @ Arizona. Tough to see them winning all 3 games