So, BYU is currently ranked #9, which I think is too low. This ranking seems to suggest that the committee views both the Big 12 and the ACC as essentially one-bid leagues.

If BYU wins out, there’s a real chance they could move up to the #3 or #4 spot and earn a first-round bye. However, the purpose of this post is to look at what needs to happen in the next few weeks for BYU to move up in the rankings.

Here are the teams ranked ahead of BYU:

Oregon: Unlikely to lose until the Big Ten Championship game. They'll probably enter that game ranked #1, and even if they lose, they should remain in the top 5 heading into the playoff.

Ohio State: With only one loss, they are also unlikely to lose before the conference championship game.

Georgia: Only one loss here as well. They’re unlikely to lose before the SEC Championship, though they do have two tough games in the next few weeks. There's a slight chance they could fall.

Miami: Definitely a bit of "fool's gold" here. The toughest games are likely behind them, and they may lose in the conference championship game to SMU.

Texas: Honestly, if they were Iowa State, they wouldn’t be ranked this high. They won’t lose their next two games, but they’re at risk of losing to Texas A&M by the end of the season. They could also fall out of the top 10 entirely.

This is where BYU could potentially leapfrog some teams:

Penn State: Another team benefiting more from brand recognition than actual performance. They have a favorable schedule and should remain unbeaten, but there’s been a lot of scrutiny about their ranking. If they don’t win decisively against Washington, the committee may take another look and lower them.

Tennessee: If they beat Mississippi State, they likely won’t move much. A win over Georgia would shoot them up, but if they lose to Georgia (which seems likely), they could drop below BYU.

Indiana: If they beat Michigan, they may stay where they are. A win over Ohio State could elevate them significantly, but if they lose to Ohio State (which seems likely), they could fall below BYU.

Bottom Line: Yes, it’s frustrating to see BYU at #9, but if they win their next two games—and win convincingly—there’s a really good chance they’ll move up to #6 or possibly even crack the top 5.

Just win, and win decisively!