Sagarin's predictor system (based on points) has the best record for predicting the winner of CFB games this year. Right now they are at 73%.

Looking down the tables on sagarin's website (http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm),
what jumps out at me is that BYU is predicted to win by .08 of a point. That's not 8 percentage points, that's not 8 points. It is literally less than a point. So sagarin is essential predicting BYU wins in overtime.

But is that realistic? I don't think so.

BYU is better at sizing up their opponents than the numbers give them credit for. Many of their turnovers were forced in specific ways by the defense setting up the opposing QB to do the wrong thing. BYU's offense takes advantage of opponents weaknesses in a methodical manner and exploits them in surprising ways that seem like luck, but when they keep happening, you know its more than that.

I think BYU wins by two touchdowns or more in a game that looks like it was never in question. I expect to see a game like BYU 27 Utah 13.

Long answer why"

The conventional wisdom is pretty much the same as Sagarin's predictor. It's gonna be close and throw out the record books because its the HOLY WAR! Granted.
But the conventional wisdom is so often wrong. Especially when it seems as though there is an obvious conclusion.

Before the season, the conventional wisdom was BYU would struggle. It was obvious: they struggled last year, the O-line looked terrible the QB couldn't prove himself, and the coaching staff was clearly out of touch because they didn't make big changes. And that was all so VERY wrong.

I'm not bragging here, but I can't repeat enough stats to match my gut feel for this season, so I'm going off personal perceptions here. During the preseason I thought BYU would surprise people for two reasons: (1) last year's narrative ignored just how much improvement was apparent in the final two games, and (2) reports during fall camp leaned heavily towards how well the defense was playing. For my memory, I hadn't seen fall camp reports be so one-sided since 1996, a year when everyone doubted the second-year Juco transfer QB would really get anything going. The defense was actually strong all year and Sark surprised everyone.

I can't claim I saw this 8-0 season coming, but I did tell anyone who would care to hear me out in face-to-face conversations that 5-0 was highly likely. I expected BYU to be a 2-loss team by the end of the year, maybe better if they got lucky. Retzlaff has surpassed even my expectations in how much he has improved his ability to read and react. But the defense, well, it is exactly what I was hoping to see from a Jay Hill led squad.

The media keeps thinking BYU gets lucky, winning by turnovers is unsustainable, OSU exposed their weakness, the SMU game really didn't mean much, K state was just lucky bounces. But that narrative does a very poor job of explaining why BYU went to Orlando and boat-raced UCF--especially when UCF came out and trounced Arizona last week. It doesn't explain how Kstate lost to Houston. It doesn't explain how UCF nearly beat Iowa State on the road, even though they couldn't play BYU close at home. Here is the reality: BYU is a better team than the stats show because BYU wins with a more sophisticated statistical approach to the game than fans and media are used to.

When you listen to interviews where A-rod and Jake talk about the stats they care about, you realize these guys see it differently. Listen to Jay Hill and Kelly Poppinga and you hear them saying how the team hasn't even peaked yet, and how they expect their squads to perform even better. The reality is this is Kalani Sitake's ultimate vision, a team that plays cohesively together.

That's just BYU.

Utah, meanwhile, has become the epitome of a team that has fallen apart. They don't play with unity and trust and certainly not with any confidence. Sure they can get up for a rivalry, and Whittingham is an excellent in-game tactician. But where would a surprising Utah performance come from? How would they suddenly become capable of outperforming BYU this year when they struggled so much against Arizona who was completely lost against BYU. Saying Utah's losses were all by one score doesn't mean Utah got a little unlucky, it means they have a good defense and they can't seem to score when they need to most. BYU's offense and defense will be the toughest they have faced all year. Again, where would this tremendous performance come from? Rivalry energy?

It could. Utah could get lucky early and the noisy crowd might cause some problems for BYU players, and perhaps the game stays close. Perhaps a fluke play, penalty, bounce, player error gives Utah one more score than expected and that's how they win. I admit, it could happen. I just think it is far less likely to predict. The default prediction for this game should NOT be that this is a dogfight and its anybody's game. The default prediction, I think, looks a lot more like Sagarin's "Strong Recent" numbers which have BYU ranked 15th and Utah ranked as 55th, and predicts a BYU win by 13 points.